Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa

Abstract

Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of weather extremes, including droughts, heat waves and compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events. CDHW events profoundly impact water availability, agriculture, public health and energy production, particularly in the Horn of Africa (HOA). This study examined the historical spatiotemporal patterns of CDHW periods in the HOA during three periods (1951–1980, 1971–2000 and 1991–2020) using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. This study utilized monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data to detect droughts and daily maximum temperature data to identify heatwaves for characterizing the duration, severity and magnitude of CDHW events. The results show a substantial increase in the duration of CDHW events in recent years, with durations reaching up to 25 days. The average duration of heat waves also increased from 7 days before 1993 to 18 days by 2011, culminating in a record-breaking 43-day heat wave in 2019. Most areas experienced a significant increase in heatwave duration by more than 12 days from the early period of 1951–1980 to the late period of 1991–2020. Although around 76% and 69% of the HOA exhibited insignificant heatwave trends in the first two periods, Ethiopia and Kenya experienced substantial increases of more than 18 days during the most recent period, with some durations exceeding 25 days in recent decades. The magnitude of CDHW events generally decreased as drought duration intensified, but specific areas, particularly southwest Kenya and Eritrea, exhibited higher CDHW values in the last period. These findings underscore the urgent need to understand and address CDHW events in the HOA. Targeted interventions for disaster risk reduction and resilience-building are needed to mitigate the adverse effects of these events in this vulnerable region. This study provides a basis for future research and policy formulation in the HOA.