Least-cost light-duty vehicle fleet decarbonization and the electric vehicle conundrum

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104473

Farzad Poursadegh , Michael J. Brear , Thomas G. Leone

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and financial performance of the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. It develops dynamic models for conventional (ICEV), hybrid (HEV), plugin hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric (BEV) LDVs in four vehicle classes (compact, sedan, SUV and pickup truck), estimating their component sizes, purchase prices, embodied emissions, fuel consumption, life cycle GHG emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) as a function of vehicle miles travelled (VMT). These dynamic models are applied to the US LDV fleet with its wide range of VMT per vehicle, revealing that ICEVs have the lowest TCO at lower VMT, but HEVs and BEVs become more cost-effective as VMT increases. Financially optimal powertrain choice can then reduce fleet-wide GHG emissions by one-third with current technologies, without any subsidies or increased costs. Technological advances, particularly in battery costs and electricity emissions, are then powerful drivers of further fleet decarbonization.

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成本最低的轻型车辆脱碳和电动汽车难题

本文评估了美国轻型汽车 (LDV) 车队的温室气体 (GHG) 排放和财务业绩。它开发了四种车辆级别（紧凑型、轿车、SUV 和皮卡）的传统（ICEV）、混合动力（HEV）、插电式混合动力（PHEV）和电池电动（BEV）轻型载货汽车的动态模型，估算了它们的部件尺寸、购买价格、内含排放、燃料消耗、生命周期温室气体排放和总拥有成本（TCO）与车辆行驶里程（VMT）的函数关系。这些动态模型适用于单车行驶里程范围较大的美国轻型商用车车队，结果表明，在较低的行驶里程范围内，内燃机电动车的总拥有成本最低，但随着行驶里程的增加，混合动力车和纯电动车的成本效益更高。在不增加任何补贴或成本的情况下，选择经济上最优的动力总成可使整个车队的温室气体排放量减少三分之一。技术进步，尤其是电池成本和电力排放方面的技术进步，是进一步推动车队脱碳的强大动力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.