A prediction model for surface settlement during the construction of variable cross-section tunnels under existing structures based on stochastic medium theory

Abstract

When predicting ground surface settlement caused by constructing a new tunnel beneath existing structures, traditional stochastic medium theory inadequately accounts for the effects of abrupt changes in the cross-sectional areas of variable-section tunnels and the presence of existing structures, potentially leading to significant errors. In this paper, an enhanced ground surface settlement prediction model, based on stochastic medium theory, is proposed. The model equates the settlement of the existing structure’s base slab to that of the overlying soil and divides the horseshoe-shaped tunnel cross-section into eight arc segments, which are calculated using a polar coordinate system. Furthermore, the model treats soil loss at the junctions of variable-section tunnels as a linear transition, introduces the concept of a linear transition segment for variable sections, and accounts for the superimposed effects of closely spaced twin-tunnel excavations. Based on this model, a general-purpose calculation program has been developed that enables the rapid prediction of ground surface deformation caused by a variable-section tunnel passing beneath existing structures, simply by inputting engineering parameters. Finally, the accuracy of the prediction model was validated through comparisons with field measurement data, finite element analysis results, and calculations based on traditional stochastic medium theory. The results indicate that the proposed prediction model demonstrates high consistency with field data and finite element analysis results, whereas traditional stochastic medium theory results exhibit significant errors. This model is scientifically valid and provides a reliable reference for predicting ground surface settlement in comparable variable-section metro tunnel construction projects.