Prolonged dry seasons lengthen coccidioidomycosis transmission seasons: implications for a changing California.

Simon K Camponuri, Jennifer R Head, Philip A Collender, Amanda K Weaver, Alexandra K Heaney, Kate A Colvin, Abinash Bhattachan, Gail Sondermeyer-Cooksey, Duc J Vugia, Seema Jain, Justin V Remais
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Abstract

Coccidioidomycosis, a fungal disease caused by soil-borne Coccidioides spp., exhibits pronounced seasonal transmission, with incidence in California typically peaking in the fall. However, the influence of climate on the timing and duration of transmission seasons remains poorly understood. Using weekly data on reported coccidioidomycosis cases in California from 2000-2023, we developed a distributed-lag Markov state-transition model to estimate the effects of temperature and precipitation on the timing of transmission season onset and end. We found that transitions from cooler, wetter conditions to hotter, drier conditions accelerate season onset. Dry conditions (10 th percentile of precipitation) in the spring shifted season onset an average of 2.8 weeks (95% CI: 0.43-3.58) earlier compared to wet conditions (90 th percentile of precipitation). Conversely, transitions back to cooler, wetter conditions hastened season end, with dry fall conditions extending the season by an average of 0.69 weeks (95% CI: 0.37-1.41) compared to wet conditions. When dry conditions occurred in the spring and fall, the transmission season extended by 3.70 weeks (95% CI: 1.23-4.22). As California is expected to experience prolonged dry seasons with climate change, our findings suggest this shift may lengthen the time at which populations are at elevated coccidioidomycosis risk.

干旱季节延长球孢子菌病的传播季节:对不断变化的加利福尼亚州的影响。
球孢子菌病是一种由土壤中的球孢子菌属引起的真菌病,具有明显的季节性传播特点,加利福尼亚州的发病率通常在秋季达到高峰。然而,人们对气候对传播季节的时间和持续时间的影响仍然知之甚少。利用 2000-2023 年加州每周报告的球孢子菌病病例数据,我们建立了一个分布式滞后马尔科夫状态转换模型,以估计气温和降水对传播季节开始和结束时间的影响。我们发现,从较凉爽、潮湿的条件过渡到较炎热、干燥的条件会加速季节的开始。与潮湿条件(降水量的第 90 个百分位数)相比,春季的干燥条件(降水量的第 10 个百分位数)使季节开始时间平均提前了 2.8 周(95% CI:0.43-3.58)。相反,转回较凉爽、较潮湿的条件会加速季节的结束,与潮湿条件相比,干燥的秋季条件会使季节平均延长 0.69 周(95% CI:0.37-1.41)。当春季和秋季出现干燥条件时,传播季节延长了 3.70 周(95% CI:1.23-4.22)。随着气候变化,预计加利福尼亚州的旱季将会延长,我们的研究结果表明,这种变化可能会延长人群球孢子菌病风险升高的时间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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