Integrating experiments and monitoring reveals extreme sensitivity of invasive winter annuals to precipitation.

IF 4.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY
Matthew J Rinella, Lance T Vermeire, Jay P Angerer
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In arid and semiarid systems of western North America, the most damaging invasive plants are winter annuals. These plants are destroying wildlife habitat, reducing livestock production, and increasing wildfires. Monitoring these plants for lasting population changes is challenging because their abundances vary widely from year to year. Some of this variation is due to weather, and quantifying effects of weather is important for distinguishing transcient from lasting population changes and understanding effects of climate change. Fall and spring weather affect germination and seed production of the current generation of plants and, therefore, impact population sizes of subsequent generations of plants. Extensive data are required to estimate effects of fall and spring weather on multiple generations of plants. We used Bayesian statistics to integrate experimental and long-term (31 years) monitoring data and quantify invasive annual grass [downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.) and Japanese brome (Bromus japonicus Thunb.)] responses to weather. Bromes ranged from nearly absent to comprising half of total biomass depending on three previous years of weather. Brome biomass increased with precipitation one, two, and three falls prior to measurement. Fall precipitation is projected to increase, and a mere 6.5 mm increase, which is just 2% of mean annual precipitation, would increase brome biomass 40% (28%, 54%) (mean [95% CI]) according to our model. Increased fall precipitation could favor many invasive winter annual grasses and forbs. Dry spring conditions reduced brome biomass the current year but increased brome biomass one and likely two (p = 0.08) years later, perhaps because dry conditions weakened perennial competitors. This finding casts doubt on several one-year precipitation experiments that concluded drier spring weather would reduce brome abundances. Integrating short-term experiments and long-term monitoring is useful for estimating invasive plant responses to the weather and characterizing their responses to climate change. Our research provides predictions of brome abundances that could improve monitoring efforts by helping land managers interpret population dynamics in the context of seasonal precipitation patterns.

实验与监测相结合,揭示了入侵性冬季一年生植物对降水的极端敏感性。
在北美西部的干旱和半干旱地区,最具破坏性的入侵植物是冬季一年生植物。这些植物破坏了野生动物的栖息地,降低了牲畜产量,并加剧了野火。监测这些植物的持久种群变化具有挑战性,因为它们的数量每年变化很大。其中一些变化是由天气造成的,而量化天气的影响对于区分短暂的种群变化和持久的种群变化以及了解气候变化的影响非常重要。秋季和春季的天气会影响这一代植物的发芽和种子生产,从而影响后代植物的种群数量。估计秋季和春季天气对多代植物的影响需要大量数据。我们使用贝叶斯统计法整合了实验数据和长期(31 年)监测数据,并量化了一年生入侵草[绒毛锦鸡儿(Bromus tectorum L. )和日本锦鸡儿(Bromus japonicus Thunb.)根据前三年的天气情况,锦鸡儿草的生物量从几乎没有到占总生物量的一半不等。锦鸡儿的生物量随着测量前一、二、三秋降水量的增加而增加。根据我们的模型,秋季降水量预计会增加,仅增加 6.5 毫米(仅为年平均降水量的 2%)就会使锦鸡儿的生物量增加 40%(28%,54%)(平均值 [95%CI])。秋季降水量的增加可能有利于许多入侵的冬季一年生草本植物。干燥的春季条件降低了当年锦鸡儿的生物量,但增加了一年后锦鸡儿的生物量,甚至可能增加了两年后锦鸡儿的生物量(p = 0.08),这可能是因为干燥的条件削弱了多年生竞争者。这一发现使人们对一些为期一年的降水实验产生了怀疑,因为这些实验认为春季较干旱的天气会减少锦鸡儿的数量。将短期实验和长期监测结合起来,对估计入侵植物对天气的反应以及描述它们对气候变化的反应非常有用。我们的研究提供了对锦鸡儿丰度的预测,可以帮助土地管理者在季节性降水模式的背景下解释种群动态,从而改进监测工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Ecological Applications
Ecological Applications 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
9.50
自引率
2.00%
发文量
268
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: The pages of Ecological Applications are open to research and discussion papers that integrate ecological science and concepts with their application and implications. Of special interest are papers that develop the basic scientific principles on which environmental decision-making should rest, and those that discuss the application of ecological concepts to environmental problem solving, policy, and management. Papers that deal explicitly with policy matters are welcome. Interdisciplinary approaches are encouraged, as are short communications on emerging environmental challenges.
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