Projecting Untruncated Climate Change Effects on Species' Climate Suitability: Insights From an Alpine Country

IF 10.8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Antoine Adde, Nathan Külling, Pierre-Louis Rey, Fabian Fopp, Philipp Brun, Olivier Broennimann, Anthony Lehmann, Blaise Petitpierre, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Loïc Pellissier, Florian Altermatt, Antoine Guisan
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate-driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state-of-the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30-year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070–2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate-suitable areas for biodiversity.

Abstract Image

预测未经预测的气候变化对物种气候适宜性的影响:一个高山国家的启示
欧洲大陆的气候预测显示,夏季将更加干燥,年降水量将增加,冬季降雪量将减少,预计这将导致物种分布发生变化。然而,目前大多数地区/国家都缺乏由气候驱动的跨分类群生物多样性综合预测,这给有效的保护工作带来了挑战。为了填补这一空白,我们的研究评估了气候变化对欧洲高山国家瑞士生物多样性的潜在影响。我们采用了最先进的物种分布建模方法和物种出现数据,这些数据涵盖了整个物种分布区的气候条件,有助于限制生态位截断。我们量化了基线气候与 12 个主要分类群 7291 个物种的空间分布之间的关系,并预测了三个 30 年期和两种温室气体浓度情景(RCP4.5 和 8.5)下的未来气候适宜性。我们的研究结果表明,预测的气候变化对物种的气候适宜性有重要影响,不同的分类学和保护状况组对气候变化的反应也不尽相同。与 RCP4.5(66%)相比,RCP8.5(68%)下气候适宜性面临重大变化的物种比例更高。到本世纪末,预计 RCP8.5 下有 3000 个物种的气候适宜性会下降,RCP4.5 下有 1758 个物种的气候适宜性会下降。在 RCP8.5 条件下,受影响最大的是软体动物、藻类和两栖动物,而在 RCP4.5 条件下,受影响最大的是软体动物、鸟类和维管植物。从空间上看,到 2070-2099 年,我们预测在 RCP8.5 和 RCP4.5 条件下,研究区域内 39% 的小区的气候适宜性将总体下降 10%,而在 RCP8.5 和 RCP4.5 条件下,研究区域内 50% 的小区的气候适宜性将总体上升 73%。最一致的地理变化是向上、向南和向东。我们发现,保护区对高气候适宜性小区的覆盖率预计会增加。我们的模型和地图指出了未来生物多样性的气候适宜区,为空间保护规划提供了指导。
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来源期刊
Global Change Biology
Global Change Biology 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
21.50
自引率
5.20%
发文量
497
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal committed to shaping the future and addressing the world's most pressing challenges, including sustainability, climate change, environmental protection, food and water safety, and global health. Dedicated to fostering a profound understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and offering innovative solutions, the journal publishes a diverse range of content, including primary research articles, technical advances, research reviews, reports, opinions, perspectives, commentaries, and letters. Starting with the 2024 volume, Global Change Biology will transition to an online-only format, enhancing accessibility and contributing to the evolution of scholarly communication.
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