Machine Learning-powered 28-day Mortality Prediction Model for Hospitalized Patients with Acute Decompensation of Liver Cirrhosis.

Abstract

Objectives: Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis are persistent global health threats, ranking among the top causes of death. Despite medical advancements, their mortality rates have remained stagnant for decades. Existing scoring systems such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh and Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease have limitations, prompting the exploration of more accurate predictive methods using artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML).

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the data of all adult patients with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis admitted to a tertiary hospital during 2015-2021. The dataset underwent preprocessing to handle missing values and standardize continuous features. Traditional ML and deep learning algorithms were applied to build a 28-day mortality prediction model.

Results: The subjects were 173 cirrhosis patients, whose medical records were examined. We developed and evaluated multiple models for 28-day mortality prediction. Among traditional ML algorithms, logistic regression outperformed was achieving an accuracy of 82.9%, precision of 55.6%, recall of 71.4%, and an F1-score of 0.625. Naive Bayes and Random Forest models also performed well, both achieving the same accuracy (82.9%) and precision (54.5%). The deep learning models (multilayer artificial neural network, recurrent neural network, and Long Short-Term Memory) exhibited mixed results, with the multilayer artificial neural network achieving an accuracy of 74.3% but lower precision and recall. The feature importance analysis identified key predictability contributors, including admission in the intensive care unit (importance: 0.112), use of mechanical ventilation (importance: 0.095), and mean arterial pressure (importance: 0.073).

Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the potential of ML in predicting 28-day mortality following hospitalization with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis. Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, and Random Forest models proved effective, while deep learning models exhibited variable performance. These models can serve as useful tools for risk stratification and timely intervention. Implementing these models in clinical practice has the potential to improve patient outcomes and resource allocation.