The effect of the ultra-low emission zone on PM2.5 concentration in Seoul, South Korea

Abstract

As studies regarding the positive effect of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) and people's risk perception about air pollution have increased, more powerful and specific traffic regulation policies have been required. London is the first city in the world to implement an Ultra-low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in addition to the existing LEZ. Benchmarking London's ULEZ, a ULEZ policy was implemented in Seoul, South Korea on December 1, 2019. The goal of the policy is to improve air quality by prohibiting entry of vehicles registered nationwide into Seoul's ULEZ that do not meet a specific emission standard including diesel, gasoline, and LPG fuel-based vehicles. This study analyzed the effect of Seoul's ULEZ policy on the five major atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, CO, SO2, O3) concentration in the zone, particularly focusing on PM2.5 concentration. The analysis employs Difference-in-Differences (DD) approach, comparing data from one year before and after the policy's implementation on December 1, 2019. The findings indicate that Seoul's ULEZ policy resulted in a 9.8% increase in PM2.5 concentrations. Conversely, the policy led to reductions in PM10, NO2, CO, and SO2 concentrations by 12.0%, 17.3%, 5.9%, and 10.8%, respectively, while the effect on O3 was statistically insignificant. These empirical results suggest that the ULEZ may need to incorporate more stringent emission standards, expand its coverage, or introduce additional measures to address the unintended increase in PM2.5 concentration.