Post-disaster housing recovery estimation: Data and lessons learned from the 2017 Tubbs and 2018 Camp Fires

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Jeonghyun Lee , Rodrigo Costa , Jack W. Baker
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Post-wildfire housing recovery is a complex process for which systematically collected data remains scarce. Consequently, our ability to anticipate obstacles and plan for housing recovery from future events is limited. This study leverages housing permit datasets collected in Santa Rosa and Unincorporated Sonoma County, impacted by the 2017 Tubbs Fire, and Paradise, impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire. Permit and tax assessor data are combined to gain insights into the recovery processes for these communities. Although the percentage of rebuilt destroyed homes varies significantly between regions, the peak construction demand occurs around 1.5 years after each wildfire, with a substantial decline in the reconstruction rate after 2.5 years. Moreover, the pace of transition from permit application to reconstruction completion is similar across all three regions. Using this finding, we propose a methodology to forecast the number of parcels rebuilt per unit of time based on observations from prior events. A proof-of-concept application of the proposed methodology indicates that it estimates long-term housing recovery patterns based on permit application data collected within one year of the event. These findings indicate that a longitudinal housing recovery data database would help forecast housing recovery from future disasters by providing a source for early empirical validation of predictive models.
灾后住房恢复估算:2017 年塔布斯大火和 2018 年坎普大火的数据和经验教训
野火后的住房恢复是一个复杂的过程,系统收集的数据仍然很少。因此,我们预测未来事件中住房恢复的障碍并制定计划的能力有限。本研究利用了在受 2017 年 Tubbs 大火影响的圣塔罗莎和未并入的索诺玛县以及受 2018 年 Camp 大火影响的天堂镇收集的住房许可数据集。许可证和税务评估师数据相结合,有助于深入了解这些社区的恢复过程。虽然各地区重建的被毁房屋比例差异很大,但每次野火后 1.5 年左右都会出现建筑需求高峰,2.5 年后重建率会大幅下降。此外,从申请许可到重建完成的过渡速度在所有三个地区都相似。利用这一发现,我们提出了一种方法,根据以前事件的观测结果预测单位时间内重建的地块数量。所提方法的概念验证应用表明,它可以根据事件发生后一年内收集的许可证申请数据估算出长期的房屋恢复模式。这些研究结果表明,纵向住房恢复数据数据库将有助于预测未来灾害后的住房恢复情况,为预测模型提供早期经验验证来源。
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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