Co-defining a user-based desirable future for seismic alert systems with stakeholders: application to martinique, French west indies

Abstract

Since we cannot predict earthquakes, it is critical to better anticipate them and thus to save time in enabling timely implementation of appropriate protection measures. To this end, several types of tools based on real-time monitoring have been proposed over the past ten years, namely: Operational Earthquake (or Aftershock) Forecasting, (ii) Earthquake Early Warning and (iii) Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems. This paper assesses the opportunity to transfer these three socio-technical systems into operational tools for the territory of Martinique (French West Indies), and more generally for the Lesser Antilles regions.

The research design relies on an user-centered approach based on an in-depth three-steps consultation of stakeholders in the territory of Martinique, by implementing (i) an online survey, (ii) a targeted interview with key actors and finally (iii) a workshop bringing together all stakeholders. This sequential consultation approach enables to start from individual considerations and to progressively refine the diagnosis of the applicability of earthquake alerting tools, first for each type of entity, then for the territory as a whole. Coupled with an analysis of international experience in seismic alerting and the regional context of seismic risk governance, this leads to the elaboration of perspectives at three scales: (i) the local scale of Martinique, (ii) the regional scale of the French West Indies on one hand, and of Lesser Antilles on the other, and (iii) the international scale. In particular, the findings of this study emphasize the need for an “informational continuum” of decision support for practitioners before, during and after the occurrence of earthquakes and their aftershocks. This leads to a reconsideration of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems as intrinsically complementary, while not having the same level of operational applicability.