Blowin’ in the wind: Long-term downwind exposure to air pollution from power plants and adult mortality

Abstract

We estimate the causal effects of long-term exposure to air pollution emitted from fossil fuel power plants on adult mortality. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in daily wind patterns, which is further instrumented by the county orientation from the nearest power plant. We find that the county’s fraction of days spent downwind of plants within 20 miles in the last 10 years is associated with increased mortality from COVID-19 through the third peak in mortality in January 2021. This effect is more pronounced in fenceline communities with high poverty rates, low health insurance coverage, and low educational attainment.