Climate pattern effects on global economic conditions

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106920

Gilles Dufrénot , William Ginn , Marc Pourroy

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns affect global economic conditions. Prior research suggests that ENSO phases, particularly El Niño, influence economic outcomes, but with limited consensus on their broader macroeconomic impacts. Using a novel monthly dataset from 20 economies, covering 80% of global output from 1999 to 2022, we employ a global augmented vector autoregression with local projections (GAVARLP) model. The empirical findings suggest that El Niño boosts output with minimal inflationary effects, reducing global economic policy uncertainty, while La Niña raises food inflation, which can amplify aggregate inflation as a “second-round” effect, amplifying uncertainty. These findings shed light on the transmission channels of climate shocks and highlight the significant role of ENSO in shaping global economic conditions, emphasizing why climate shocks should be a concern for policy markers.

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气候模式对全球经济状况的影响

本研究探讨了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）气候模式如何影响全球经济状况。先前的研究表明，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动阶段，尤其是厄尔尼诺，会影响经济结果，但对其更广泛的宏观经济影响的共识有限。我们利用来自 20 个经济体的新颖月度数据集（涵盖 1999 年至 2022 年全球产出的 80%），采用了一个具有本地预测功能的全球增强向量自回归（GAVARLP）模型。实证研究结果表明，厄尔尼诺现象会促进产出，但对通胀的影响极小，从而减少全球经济政策的不确定性；而拉尼娜现象则会提高食品通胀，从而作为 "第二轮 "效应放大总通胀，扩大不确定性。这些发现揭示了气候冲击的传播渠道，突出了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在塑造全球经济状况方面的重要作用，强调了气候冲击应成为政策制定者关注的问题的原因。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Modelling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.60%

发文量

295

期刊介绍： Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.