Development and validation of a risk prediction model for pseudarthrosis after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion: A retrospective analysis.

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Zhanwei Wang, Jianjie Wang, Chen Jin, Xuqiang Zhan, Yi Li, Qingzhi Xiang, Kaiwei Wang, Haofei Ni, Tao Dai, Yan Yu, Ning Xie
{"title":"Development and validation of a risk prediction model for pseudarthrosis after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion: A retrospective analysis.","authors":"Zhanwei Wang, Jianjie Wang, Chen Jin, Xuqiang Zhan, Yi Li, Qingzhi Xiang, Kaiwei Wang, Haofei Ni, Tao Dai, Yan Yu, Ning Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.wneu.2024.10.021","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Pseudarthrosis is a common complication of transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) that can affect the long-term prognosis and increase revision surgery risk. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the risk factors associated with pseudarthrosis and develop a predictive model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Patients who underwent TLIF at a single hospital between January 2019 and June 2021 were included. Each patient's fusion status was determined based on thin-section lumbar spine CT scans performed at least one year postoperatively. A nomogram was subsequently established to predict the probability of pseudarthrosis based on the results of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the prediction effect and clinical value of the model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 284 patients (131 men [46.1 %]; mean [standard deviation, SD] age, 63.0[12.1] years) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] follow-up, 19.2[9.2] months). The incidence of pseudarthrosis was 13.4% (38/284). In LASSO and multivariable analysis, independent risk factors for pseudarthrosis included: history of smoking (odds ratio [OR]:2.966, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.135-7.750, P=0.027), osteoporosis (OR=6.362, 95% CI: 2.433-16.636, P<0.001), and the change of mean disc height (ΔMDH) (OR=2.401, 95% CI: 1.638-3.519, P<0.001). The areas under the curves (AUC) in the training and validation cohorts were 0.870 and 0.809, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>History of smoking, osteoporosis, and ΔMDH are all independent risk factors of pseudarthrosis following TLIF surgery; a nomogram based on these may help predict the probability of pseudarthrosis.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wneu.2024.10.021","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Pseudarthrosis is a common complication of transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) that can affect the long-term prognosis and increase revision surgery risk. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the risk factors associated with pseudarthrosis and develop a predictive model.

Methods: Patients who underwent TLIF at a single hospital between January 2019 and June 2021 were included. Each patient's fusion status was determined based on thin-section lumbar spine CT scans performed at least one year postoperatively. A nomogram was subsequently established to predict the probability of pseudarthrosis based on the results of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the prediction effect and clinical value of the model.

Results: In total, 284 patients (131 men [46.1 %]; mean [standard deviation, SD] age, 63.0[12.1] years) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] follow-up, 19.2[9.2] months). The incidence of pseudarthrosis was 13.4% (38/284). In LASSO and multivariable analysis, independent risk factors for pseudarthrosis included: history of smoking (odds ratio [OR]:2.966, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.135-7.750, P=0.027), osteoporosis (OR=6.362, 95% CI: 2.433-16.636, P<0.001), and the change of mean disc height (ΔMDH) (OR=2.401, 95% CI: 1.638-3.519, P<0.001). The areas under the curves (AUC) in the training and validation cohorts were 0.870 and 0.809, respectively.

Conclusions: History of smoking, osteoporosis, and ΔMDH are all independent risk factors of pseudarthrosis following TLIF surgery; a nomogram based on these may help predict the probability of pseudarthrosis.

经椎间孔腰椎椎体融合术后假关节风险预测模型的开发与验证:回顾性分析
背景:假关节是经椎间孔腰椎椎体间融合术(TLIF)的常见并发症,可影响长期预后并增加翻修手术风险。因此,研究与假关节相关的风险因素并建立预测模型至关重要:方法:纳入2019年1月至2021年6月期间在一家医院接受TLIF的患者。根据术后至少一年的腰椎CT薄层扫描结果确定每位患者的融合状态。随后,根据最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)和多变量分析的结果,建立了预测假关节概率的提名图。应用接收者操作特征曲线(ROC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的预测效果和临床价值:共有 284 名患者(131 名男性[46.1%];平均[标准差,SD]年龄,63.0[12.1]岁)纳入分析(平均[标准差]随访时间,19.2[9.2]个月)。假关节发生率为13.4%(38/284)。在 LASSO 和多变量分析中,假关节的独立风险因素包括:吸烟史(几率比 [OR]:2.966,95% 置信区间 [CI]:1.135-7.750,P=0.027)、骨质疏松症(OR=6.362,95% CI:2.433-16.636,PC 结论:吸烟史、骨质疏松症和ΔMDH都是TLIF手术后发生假关节的独立风险因素;基于这些因素的提名图可能有助于预测假关节发生的概率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信