An Updated Framework for Modeling White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Habitat Quality in Illinois, USA

Abstract

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are a cervid species found mostly in the Americas. Managing white-tailed deer requires understanding their relationship with the environment, which was characterized by Roseberry and Woolf (Wildlife Society Bulletin 1, 1998, 252) for all counties in Illinois, USA, who incorporated habitat quantity and quality in a deer habitat suitability index. However, this index was based on satellite imagery from 1996 and did not explore the smaller spatial scales used by deer. Our study addressed these gaps by developing a deer land cover utility (LCU) score for each TRS (township, range, and section), township, and county in Illinois based on the methodology outlined in Roseberry and Woolf (Wildlife Society Bulletin 1, 1998, 252) but using data from the National Land Cover Database (2001–2021). These deer LCU scores were validated against minimum deer population data using Bayesian regression with additional covariates relevant to hunting and deer density. These models performed well with Bayesian R² values of 0.501 (TRS), 0.5 (township), and 0.969 (county). The regression coefficients for the deer LCU scores were statistically significant (95% credibility interval not containing 0) and positive at the TRS, township, and county levels, reflecting the expected relationship between minimum deer density and deer LCU. Predictions made by these regression models on new data were accurate, with the median absolute difference between the true and predicted values being 0.398 deer/km² for TRS', 0.085 deer/km² for townships, and 0.066 deer/km² for counties. This deer LCU could be used in other studies about deer in Illinois or studies in which deer are a relevant factor such as investigations about deer disease or tick distribution. This modeling approach could also be adapted to different wild species, locations, and/or time periods for which land cover data is available.