Projecting dry-wet abrupt alternation across China from the perspective of soil moisture

Abstract

Under a warmer climate, the enhancement of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) risk poses a great challenge for sustainable development. Here, we introduce a novel framework for DWAA detection based on our proposed soil moisture concentration index. By the end of this century, over humid southern China, the shift of soil moisture time series from anomalously wet to anomalously dry pattern, or the other way around, will be more abrupt. In addition, the proposed framework driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations projects more widespread DWAA-affected areas over southwestern China, coastal regions of southeastern China, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially under a high emission scenario. The framework proposed in this study provides an efficient system for DWAA detection and prediction, and the findings of this study provide a reference for upgrading hydraulic infrastructure and mitigating future DWAA events.