Vaccine-induced reduction of COVID-19 clusters in school settings in Japan during the epidemic wave caused by B.1.1.529 (Omicron) BA.2, 2022.

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Clusters of COVID-19 in high-risk settings, such as schools, have been deemed a critical driving force of the major epidemic waves at the societal level. In Japan, the vaccination coverage among students remained low up to early 2022, especially for 5-11-year-olds. The vaccination of the student population only started in February 2022. Given this background and considering that vaccine effectiveness against school transmission has not been intensively studied, this paper proposes a mathematical model that links the occurrence of clustering to the case count among populations aged 0-19, 20-59, and 60+ years of age. We first estimated the protected (immune) fraction of each age group either by infection or vaccination and then linked the case count in each age group to the number of clusters via a time series regression model that accounts for the time-varying hazard of clustering per infector. From January 3 to May 30, 2022, there were 4,722 reported clusters in school settings. Our model suggests that the immunity offered by vaccination averted 226 (95% credible interval: 219-232) school clusters. Counterfactual scenarios assuming elevated vaccination coverage with faster roll-out reveal that additional school clusters could have been averted. Our study indicates that even relatively low vaccination coverage among students could substantially lower the risk of clustering through vaccine-induced immunity. Our results also suggest that antigenically updated vaccines that are more effective against the variant responsible for the ongoing epidemic may greatly help decrease not only the incidence but also the unnecessary loss of learning opportunities among school-age students.

在 2022 年 B.1.1.529(Omicron)BA.2 引起的流行病浪潮中,疫苗诱导减少了日本学校环境中的 COVID-19 集群。
学校等高危场所的 COVID-19 群体被认为是社会层面重大流行病浪潮的关键推动力。在日本,直到 2022 年初,学生的疫苗接种率仍然很低,尤其是 5-11 岁的学生。学生群体的疫苗接种从 2022 年 2 月才开始。鉴于这一背景,并考虑到针对校园传播的疫苗效果尚未得到深入研究,本文提出了一个数学模型,将集群的发生与 0-19 岁、20-59 岁和 60 岁以上人群中的病例数联系起来。我们首先通过感染或接种疫苗估算了每个年龄组的受保护(免疫)比例,然后通过时间序列回归模型将每个年龄组的病例数与聚集数联系起来,该模型考虑了每个感染者聚集的时变危险。从 2022 年 1 月 3 日至 5 月 30 日,共报告了 4722 例学校环境中的聚集病例。我们的模型表明,疫苗接种提供的免疫力避免了 226 例(95% 可信区间:219-232 例)学校集群。假设提高疫苗接种覆盖率并加快推广速度的反事实情景显示,本可以避免更多的学校疫情。我们的研究表明,即使学生的疫苗接种覆盖率相对较低,也可以通过疫苗诱导的免疫力大大降低集群风险。我们的研究结果还表明,经过抗原更新的疫苗对造成目前流行病的变异株更有效,不仅能大大降低发病率,还能减少学龄学生不必要的学习机会损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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