Risk assessment and management strategy of geologic carbon storage in multi-well site

Abstract

Many oil and gas production areas may serve as potential geologic carbon storage(GCS) sites, but large-scale CO₂ injection in these sites with multiple legacy wells poses a leakage risk. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the well leakage risk of these GCS sites and develop effective risk management strategies to minimize CO₂ and brine leakage. In this study, we hypothesized a GCS site based on the Jingbian area in the Ordos Basin, which has 177 legacy wells. We conducted a three-dimensional geological modeling of the site and simulated the injection and migration of CO₂. Using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment toolkit, we outlined a workflow for assessing the risk of CO₂ and brine leakage in multi-well site. Simulations of CO₂ and brine leakage through 177 existing wells into the USDW or the atmosphere are used as an indicator of potential risk. Finally, we proposed risk management strategies based on well integrity, injection rate, and pollution range, verifying their effectiveness. The results of the 95th percentile (P95) model implementation showed that the leakage risk of GCS sites was low over 150 years, with a CO₂ leakage of 15,996.4 tonnes(0.16 % of the 10⁷ t injected). The risk-based strategy outperformed both distance-based strategy and hybrid strategy overall. Reducing injection rates alone proved ineffective as a risk management strategy. Only high-risk wells near the injection zone may cause pollution to USDW. Meanwhile, legacy wells have negligible impact on atmospheric pollution. The management strategy based on pollution range can be used as a supplement to the risk-based strategy in practical engineering.