Time-guided convolutional neural networks for spatiotemporal urban flood modelling

Abstract

Urban flood modelling is key to understand flood risks and develop effective interventions in flood management. Deep learning (DL), known for its robust and automatic feature extraction capabilities, has been applied for urban flood predictions. However, the hybrid spatiotemporal structure of conventional DL-enabled urban flood models is limited in terms of accuracy and efficiency. To address this gap, this study develops a new DL model guided by time information. This model uses a classic CNN (Convolution Neural Network) architecture, Unet, as its backbone. Time information is integrated into inputs via an extra channel to specify the desired prediction time, facilitating the simulation of the spatiotemporal flood process. Additionally, a modified loss function is formulated to tackle the sample imbalance problem between flooded and non-flooded sites. The model performance is assessed in an urban area in Dalian, China with a total of 18 rainfall events of varying return periods. The model attains average precision and recall values of 0.90 and 0.81, respectively, across different time steps during various events. Furthermore, the model exhibits transferability in ungauged regions where a high influence of surrounding environments on local flood processes is identified by Grad-CAM (Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping) analysis. The results show that the new Unet model has great promise in efficiently providing accurate spatiotemporal flood simulations. The time-guided Unet model can serve as practical tools for rapid flood simulation in urban areas.