Sociotechnical transitions in the system for providing beef to human food: Scenarios for cultured meat

Abstract

The objective of this work was to investigate the possible scenarios of sociotechnical transitions for cultured meat, considering a time horizon of ten years. We employ methodological procedures from the La Prospective School of scenario planning. Through the structural analysis, we identified ten key variables concerning the sociotechnical system of cultured meat, oriented according to the five sociotechnical regimes: technological, scientific, political, socio-cultural, and user and market. Subsequently, based on each key variable, we propose possible key events. The results present plausible scenarios for the next ten years (2022–2032). Using the key events identified based on theoretical contributions of sociotechnical transitions, we propose dynamics and transition paths for the sociotechnical system of supplying cultured meat. Thus, elements inherent to the exogenous landscape, the characteristics of the sociotechnical regimes, and the peculiarities of the aforementioned innovation developed at the technological niche level are highlighted. The findings do not neglect any possibility or transition path, but point to a greater inclination towards the path of transformation and reconfiguration to the detriment of de-alignment and realignment, and technological replacement. Thus, our contributions provide insights and reflections on the plausible paths of these modifications.