Geospatial analysis of alarmingly increasing flood vulnerability and disaster risk within the northeast himalaya region of India

Abstract

Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial "technology-based" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km²) and 0.84 % (8.16 km²) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km²), 0.13 % (1.31 km²) and 0.03 % (0.33 km²) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km²) and 0.07 % (0.65 km²) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.