Integrated modeling of residential and work-related mobilities: A large-scale dynamic Bayesian network approach

IF 6 1区经济学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES

Cities Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2024.105546

Yajie Yang, Soora Rasouli, Feixiong Liao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Residence and work-related choices are commonly assumed interdependent and associated with some other individuals' and households' life events as well as people's socio-demographics. This paper proposes an integrated dynamic model to capture the determinants of residential and work-related mobilities, taking into account their associations with other life events. The change of employment is modeled with its multi-dimensional features, i.e., change of working hours and change of work place location, while residential mobility is modeled through the change of residential location as well as with whom within the household the move out take place. The Dutch micro-population data from 2015 to 2019 provided by the Netherlands CBS (Census Bureau of Statistics) are used to train and validate a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model. The integrated model has a high prediction precision with an average of 89.77% across life events. The results suggest that other life events, such as getting married or divorced, significantly affect the relocation of residence, while changes in working hours strongly influence the work place relocation. However, the relocations of residence and work place in the Netherlands appeared not to be directly intertwined.

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居住和工作相关流动的综合建模：大规模动态贝叶斯网络方法

居住和工作相关的选择通常被认为是相互依存的，并与其他一些个人和家庭的生活事件以及人们的社会人口统计相关联。本文提出了一个综合动态模型来捕捉居住和工作相关流动的决定因素，同时考虑到它们与其他生活事件的关联。就业变化的模型具有多维特征，即工作时间的变化和工作地点的变化，而居住流动性的模型则通过居住地点的变化以及与谁一起迁出家庭来建立。荷兰统计局（CBS）提供的 2015 年至 2019 年荷兰微观人口数据被用于训练和验证动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）模型。该综合模型具有较高的预测精度，在各种生活事件中的平均预测精度为 89.77%。结果表明，结婚或离婚等其他生活事件会显著影响居住地的迁移，而工作时间的变化会强烈影响工作地点的迁移。然而，在荷兰，居住地和工作地点的迁移似乎并不直接相互关联。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cities URBAN STUDIES-

CiteScore

11.20

自引率

9.00%

发文量

517

期刊介绍： Cities offers a comprehensive range of articles on all aspects of urban policy. It provides an international and interdisciplinary platform for the exchange of ideas and information between urban planners and policy makers from national and local government, non-government organizations, academia and consultancy. The primary aims of the journal are to analyse and assess past and present urban development and management as a reflection of effective, ineffective and non-existent planning policies; and the promotion of the implementation of appropriate urban policies in both the developed and the developing world.