An Ensemble Machine Learning Model to Enhance Extrapolation Ability of Predicting Coarse Particulate Matter with High Resolutions in China

Abstract

Accurate exposure assessment is important for conducting PM_10-2.5-related epidemiological studies, which have been limited thus far. In this study, we aimed to develop an ensemble machine learning method to estimate PM_10-2.5 concentrations in mainland China during 2013–2020. The study was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, we developed two methods: the indirect method refers to developing models for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ separately and subsequently calculating PM_10-2.5 as the difference between them; and the direct method refers to establishing a model between PM_10-2.5 measurements and relevant predictors directly. In the second stage, we employed an ensemble method by integrating predictions from both indirect and direct methods. Internal and external cross-validation (CV) were performed to validate the extrapolation capacity of models. The ensemble method demonstrated enhanced extrapolation accuracy in both internal and external CV compared to indirect and direct methods. The predictions produced by the ensemble method captured the spatiotemporal pattern of PM_10-2.5, even in the sand and dust storm seasons. Our study introduces an ensemble strategy leveraging the strengths of both indirect and direct methods to estimate PM_10-2.5 concentrations, which holds significant potential to support future epidemiological studies to address knowledge gaps in understanding the health effects of PM_10-2.5.