Cultural theory and political philosophy: Why cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk explain both beliefs about nature's resilience and political preferences regarding the organization of society.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1111/risa.17668
Marc D Davidson
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Many studies have observed a correlation between beliefs regarding nature's resilience and (political) preferences regarding the organization of society. Liberal-egalitarians, for example, generally believe nature to be much more fragile than libertarians, who believe nature to be much more resilient. Cultural theory explains this correlation by the idea that people are only able to see those risks that fit their preferred organization of society. This article offers an alternative, second explanation for the observed correlation: Both beliefs regarding nature's resilience and political preferences can be explained by the same cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk, that is, dispositions determining our expectations regarding the possible state of affairs resulting from our acts and their probabilities. This has consequences for political philosophy and the psychology of risk. In particular, there is a knowledge gap in psychology regarding the cognitive biases underlying the belief that despite ambiguity, experts can determine safe limits for human impacts on the environment.

文化理论与政治哲学:为什么对模糊风险的认知偏差既能解释关于自然复原力的信念,也能解释关于社会组织的政治偏好。
许多研究观察到,关于自然复原力的信念与关于社会组织的(政治)偏好之间存在相关性。例如,自由-法治主义者普遍认为大自然比自由主义者脆弱得多,而自由主义者则认为大自然更有韧性。文化理论对这种相关性的解释是,人们只能看到那些符合他们偏好的社会组织的风险。本文为观察到的相关性提供了另一种解释:关于自然复原力的信念和政治偏好都可以用对模糊风险的相同认知偏差来解释,即决定我们对行为可能导致的事态及其概率的预期的倾向性。这对政治哲学和风险心理学都有影响。特别是,对于认为尽管存在模糊性,专家仍能确定人类对环境影响的安全限度这一信念背后的认知偏差,心理学界还存在着知识空白。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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