Data-driven collaborative healthcare resource allocation in pandemics

Abstract

Severe shortages of healthcare resources are major challenges in pandemics, especially in their early stages. To improve emergency management efficiency, this paper proposes a novel rolling predict-then-optimize framework that includes three interactive modules, i.e., data-driven demand prediction, healthcare resource allocation, and parameter rolling update. Such a framework uses historical data to dynamically update the control parameters of the proposed Net-SEIHRD model, which predicts the healthcare needs of each region by jointly considering government interventions and cross-regional travel behaviors. Based on the forecasted healthcare resource demand in real-time, an optimization model is then formulated to realize coordinated resource allocation across multiple regions by minimizing the total generalized cost. To facilitate model solving, the proposed mixed integer nonlinear programming model is converted into an equivalent mixed integer linear model by using some linearization techniques. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the SARS-CoV-2 emergency response and collaborative allocation of healthcare resources in Shanghai, China. The results show that the proposed prediction model can effectively predict the peak and scale of the spread of the virus. Compared with the traditional LM and SEIHR models, the prediction accuracy of the Net-SEIHRD model is improved by 10.76% and 24.11%, respectively. Moreover, coordinated relief activities across regions, such as patient transfer and drug-sharing can improve the efficiency of pandemic control and save social costs.