Integrating multi-source remote sensing and machine learning for root-zone soil moisture and yield prediction of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.): A new perspective from the temperature-vegetation index feature space

Abstract

Accurately assessing root-zone soil moisture is crucial for precision irrigation, as it directly influences crop yield. The Temperature-Vegetation Index (Ts-VI) Feature Space, which combines land surface temperature (Ts) and vegetation index (VI), is widely used to evaluate root-zone soil moisture in vegetated areas. However, its effectiveness in estimating crop yield remains unclear. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (1) to collect multispectral and thermal infrared remote sensing data from a two-year (2021–2023) field experiment on winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), and to optimize and evaluate the fitting methods of the dry and wet edges of the Ts-VI feature space based on the selected vegetation indices; (2) to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) derived from the optimized Ts-VI feature space and estimate root-zone soil moisture (SM) and crop yield; and (3) to precisely invert the SM and yield of winter oilseed rape in the 0–60 cm root-zone using three machine learning algorithms—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression (XGBR), and Random Forest Regression (RFR)—based on the optimized TVDI. Results indicate that, among the various fitting methods, the polynomial fitting method shows the best performance. The performance of the root-zone soil moisture prediction models across different growth stages follows the order of budding stage > seedling stage > flowering stage, and with the increase of soil depth, the performance of the model gradually deteriorates.In the yield inversion of winter oilseed rape, TVDI effectively predicts yield, with the coefficient of determination (R²) ranging from 0.430 to 0.480 and RMSE ranging from 213.399 to 267.212 kg ha⁻¹ during the seedling stage, R² ranging from 0.640 to 0.747 and RMSE ranging from 110.712 to 178.133 kg ha⁻¹ during the budding stage, and R² ranging from 0.680 to 0.773 and RMSE ranging from 83.815 to 147.301 kg ha⁻¹ during the flowering stage. The flowering stage effectively reflects crop yield trends and allows for accurate yield prediction of winter oilseed rape up to two months in advance. A comparison of the modeling results from XGBR, SVR, and RFR shows that XGBR provides the best fit for both root-zone soil moisture and yield predictions. Compared to linear regression models, the three machine learning models significantly improve accuracy and fit, providing more precise evaluations of root-zone soil moisture and yield. In addition, through the comparison and verification of this method in other regions, it shows that the results also have certain reference value. The combination of the Ts-VI feature space and machine learning algorithms not only enables precise monitoring of root-zone soil moisture conditions but also predicts future crop yield trends, offering valuable insights for water resource management and irrigation decision-making in precision agriculture.