Inflationary dynamics of labour market activity: Evidence from the Czech Republic

IF 7.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Guilhem Sirot, Umut Unal, Robin Maialeh
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth investigation into the intricacy of inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic, with particular emphasis on the influence exerted by labor market activity. The research employed principal component analysis and the local projections methodology proposed by Jorda (2005) in the context of the Phillips curve framework, followed by the extension of the analysis via the introduction of a nuanced state dependence dimension that recognizes that the impact of labor market activity on inflation may be contingent upon the broader economic situation. Our findings revealed the statistically significant impact of labor market activity on inflation. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the labor market activity component leads to an accumulated increase in inflation of approximately 3 percentage points over a three-year horizon. Our non-linear model uncovered the pivotal interaction between state dependence and the impact on inflation. The findings revealed that during expansionary periods, labor market pressures can be effectively managed for a limited period, albeit with a slight escalation in prices. However, over an extended period, the labor market is susceptible to encountering constraints that lead to markedly higher inflation rates - almost twice as high as those observed during recessionary periods. We subjected our benchmark results to extensive robustness verification.
劳动力市场活动的通胀动态:捷克共和国的证据
本文深入探讨了捷克共和国通货膨胀动态的复杂性,特别强调了劳动力市场活动的影响。研究采用了 Jorda(2005 年)在菲利普斯曲线框架下提出的主成分分析和本地预测方法,并通过引入细微的状态依赖维度对分析进行了扩展,承认劳动力市场活动对通货膨胀的影响可能取决于更广泛的经济形势。我们的研究结果表明,劳动力市场活动对通货膨胀有显著的统计影响。具体而言,劳动力市场活动每增加一个标准差,通胀率就会在三年内累计上升约 3 个百分点。我们的非线性模型揭示了国家依赖性与通货膨胀影响之间的关键互动关系。研究结果表明,在经济扩张时期,劳动力市场的压力可以在一定时期内得到有效控制,尽管价格会略有上涨。然而,在一个较长的时期内,劳动力市场很容易受到限制,导致通货膨胀率明显上升,几乎是衰退时期的两倍。我们对基准结果进行了广泛的稳健性验证。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
9.20%
发文量
231
审稿时长
93 days
期刊介绍: Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.
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