International migration and the advent of a new demographic era

Abstract

The paper explores whether international migration is linked to currently decreasing levels of fertility in high birth rates countries, thereby to the advent of a stage of population degrowth at the world's level. Methodology is in two steps. First, a global dataset is assembled comprising 13 variables for each country. For the country itself: emigrant stock, total fertility rate, girls' enrolment rate, women's labour force participation, global gender gap, and income per capita; for a fictitious average region of destination of migrants originating from this specific country, the last six variables. In the second step, links between origin and destination countries in terms of fertility levels and determinants are analysed using bivariate correlations. A remarkable fact emerges, namely national levels of fertility and their determinants vary quasi perfectly parallel at both ends of international migration corridors. Fertility at origin is not correlated to any phenomenon as much as to fertility, girls' school enrolment and gender equity at destination. Three complementary hypotheses explaining this apparently puzzling fact are discussed: transmission of norms by migrants; cultural similarities at both ends of migrant corridors; and congruency between the global diffusion of norms and the global migration of people. The conclusion highlights the original contribution of the paper, both to the demographic discipline (migration should also be dealt with as a remote determinant of fertility) and political debates on migration (erecting barriers to migration works against the preservation of earth).