Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089

Özlem Güngör , Dilek Günneç , Sibel Salman , Eda Yücel

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model’s functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM’s potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.

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利用基于代理的建模模拟移徙路径：叙利亚难民前往土耳其的案例

长达十年的叙利亚内战引发了中东地区的大规模移民潮，其中土耳其收容的叙利亚难民人数最多。我们的研究引入了一个基于代理的模型（ABM），旨在模拟和预测未来潜在难民危机中的迁移路径。其主要目的是支持援助组织规划在难民迁徙过程中提供基本援助服务，并提供可适用于不同地理区域和迁徙情景的见解。我们以叙利亚难民向土耳其的迁移为案例进行研究，该模型旨在成为分析未来危机中迁移模式的灵活工具。拟议的 ABM 考虑了难民群体的两个特征：风险敏感程度和信息程度。为了增强模型的功能，我们对 A* 算法进行了扩展，增加了成本指标，以计算到目的地点的距离和风险的加权平均值。我们的案例研究通过六种情景考察了伊德利卜省南部的危机，深入分析了每种情景下的难民人数、迁移路径、难民营入住率以及人口稠密地区的热图。我们将模型结果与相关时期的情况报告和官方声明进行了比较验证，从而证明了所提出的人工智能模型具有适应其他迁移情况的潜力，并可在不同参数下进行进一步分析。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.