The power law of resource abundance and their corresponding extraction: Evidence to be accounted in the frame of the critical raw materials initiatives for the energy transition

Abstract

Responsible sourcing of minerals and metals is critical for the transition to a low-carbon energy system. The increased demand for these materials requires a shift towards more efficient and environmentally friendly mining practices, as well as better recycling and reuse of these materials. Based on a transdisciplinary approach, in this work, the power law, normally used to model biological systems, is applied for the first time to model the relationship between the abundance of strategic elements and their extraction, at different times (in 1999 and 2023). An increase in the exponent of the power law when analyzing materials production data in 1999 and 2023 (the data can be fitted by two power laws with an exponent of 0.61 and 0.74, respectively) suggests changes in production dynamics, which could be driven by factors such as increased demand, improved efficiency, resource diversification, regulatory changes, market dynamics, or environmental considerations. Understanding these changes is crucial for assessing the sustainability and long-term viability of material production systems. Overall, the proposed power law offers a valuable framework for analyzing the dynamic relationship between material abundance and production over time, providing insights that can inform decision-making and support efforts toward sustainable resource management and economic development. This is particularly important with the recently established policies about the increase of mining activities in the EU countries.

Based on these findings, this study suggests several priority actions, to achieve the objectives of the Critical Raw Materials Act, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of the proposed European plan to increase the availability of strategic materials. This involves diversifying resource inputs, promoting renewable and alternative materials, and adopting practices that prioritize conservation and responsible stewardship of natural resources.