Unraveling the global economic and mortality effects of rising urban heat island intensity

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105902

Yuan Yuan , Xiao Li , Huijuan Wang , Xiaolei Geng , Jintao Gu , Zhengqiu Fan , Xiangrong Wang , Chuan Liao

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Abstract

The increasing severity of urban heat island (UHI) effects poses a significant concern in cities, where to over half of the world's population lives. We examine the pattern of surface UHI intensity (SUHII) and its effect on urban economic productivity and mortality across 171 countries from 2003 to 2018. Countries with heavy industrial/manufacturing bases and higher income levels face more significant economic repercussions from SUHII. Males experience higher mortality rates under comparable SUHII conditions. A unit increase in GNI correlates to a 23.2 % rise in SUHII's effect on GDP and a 5.5 % increase in its effect on mortality rate. A higher Socio-Demographic Index mitigates SUHII's impact on urban GDP. Moreover, the Gini index directly impacts SUHII more than it affects SUHII-related mortality through inequality. Reducing income inequality by one unit will increase the enhancing effect of SUHII on the mortality rate by 11.8 %. Our findings reveal a significant link between wealth disparity and amplified health risks associated with SUHII, potentially leading to new forms of urban inequality. The study highlights the importance of development status and economic composition in facing UHI-related challenges and recommends equitable strategies for policymakers and urban planners to mitigate UHI effects in diverse developmental contexts.

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揭示城市热岛强度上升对全球经济和死亡率的影响

城市热岛（UHI）效应日益严重，这对居住着全球一半以上人口的城市来说是一个重大问题。我们研究了 2003 至 2018 年间 171 个国家的地表超高强度（SUHII）模式及其对城市经济生产力和死亡率的影响。工业/制造业基础雄厚、收入水平较高的国家面临的超高强度对经济的影响更为显著。在同等 SUHII 条件下，男性死亡率更高。国民总收入每增加一个单位，SUHII 对国内生产总值的影响就增加 23.2%，对死亡率的影响增加 5.5%。较高的社会人口指数会减轻 SUHII 对城市 GDP 的影响。此外，基尼指数对 SUHII 的直接影响大于通过不平等对 SUHII 相关死亡率的影响。将收入不平等程度降低一个单位将使 SUHII 对死亡率的提升效应增加 11.8%。我们的研究结果揭示了贫富差距与 SUHII 相关健康风险扩大之间的重要联系，有可能导致新形式的城市不平等。这项研究强调了发展状况和经济构成在面对与超高温影响相关的挑战时的重要性，并为政策制定者和城市规划者提出了在不同发展背景下减轻超高温影响的公平策略建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;