Dynamic resilience assessment and multi-objective optimization decision-making for urban roadway tunnel system in the face of fire disaster

IF 6.7 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI:10.1016/j.tust.2024.106120

Honglei Sun , Huijun Lan , Zili He , Xiaodong Pan , Ranran Zhang , Pengfei Zhang , Junhao Tong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The urban roadway tunnel system (URTS), as an infrastructure system that includes equipment and facilities, operational staff, and traffic participants, faces challenges arising from various potential fire threats. Existing studies on tunnel fire risk primarily focus on static assessment, neglecting dynamic changes over time, and insufficiently considering the complexity of tunnel composition, leading to incomplete identification of influential factors. Additionally, few studies were conducted to develop optimal operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies under cost constraints. To bolster fire safety management of URTS, a fire framework that combines resilience assessment and optimization is proposed based on system resilience theory, Bayesian network (BN), and multi-objective optimization (MOPT) in this paper. The framework is applied to Hangzhou’s URTS. The results indicate that Hangzhou’s URTS has a current “Medium” fire resilience level of 0.640, decreasing to 0.568 in 20 years without scientific O&M. The static and dynamic strategies are acquired through sensitivity and critical importance analysis, enhancing long-term fire resilience. Moreover, optimal strategies for varied investments in diverse periods are explored, considering O&M costs and resilience levels. The fire resilience framework introduced herein can integrate into various infrastructure systems, effectively enhancing disaster resilience and promoting sustainable development.

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面对火灾灾难的城市道路隧道系统动态弹性评估和多目标优化决策

城市道路隧道系统（URTS）作为一个包括设备设施、运营人员和交通参与者在内的基础设施系统，面临着各种潜在火灾威胁带来的挑战。现有的隧道火灾风险研究主要集中于静态评估，忽视了随时间变化的动态变化，也没有充分考虑隧道组成的复杂性，导致对影响因素的识别不全面。此外，在成本约束条件下制定最佳运营和维护（O&M）策略的研究也很少。为加强城市轨道交通的消防安全管理，本文基于系统弹性理论、贝叶斯网络（BN）和多目标优化（MOPT），提出了一种将弹性评估和优化相结合的消防框架。本文将该框架应用于杭州市城市轨道交通系统。结果表明，杭州市城市轨道交通系统目前的 "中等 "火灾恢复能力水平为 0.640，在不进行科学运营管理的情况下，20 年后将降至 0.568。通过灵敏度和临界重要性分析，获得了静态和动态策略，提高了长期抗火能力。此外，考虑到 O&M 成本和复原力水平，还探讨了不同时期不同投资的最佳策略。本文介绍的火灾复原力框架可融入各种基础设施系统，有效提高灾害复原力，促进可持续发展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

18.80%

发文量

454

审稿时长

10.8 months

期刊介绍： Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology is an international journal which publishes authoritative articles encompassing the development of innovative uses of underground space and the results of high quality research into improved, more cost-effective techniques for the planning, geo-investigation, design, construction, operation and maintenance of underground and earth-sheltered structures. The journal provides an effective vehicle for the improved worldwide exchange of information on developments in underground technology - and the experience gained from its use - and is strongly committed to publishing papers on the interdisciplinary aspects of creating, planning, and regulating underground space.