Disparity in Meiyu precipitation in the middle-lower Yangtze River basin during El Niño decay years

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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Abstract

Meiyu (plume rain) is a distinctive weather phenomenon during boreal early summer, known for its increased precipitation during El Niño decay years bridged through the northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC). It has been widely acknowledged that super El Niño (SEN) events consistently correspond to more Meiyu. This study highlights the instability in the relationship between El Niño and Meiyu, particularly during normal El Niño (NEN) decay years, where the probability of more or less Meiyu is almost equal by statistical analysis. Using the Liang-Kleeman information flow (LIF), our findings confirm that warming in the Maritime Continent (MC) induced by SEN leads to tropical North Atlantic warming in boreal spring. This suppresses northwest Pacific convection via Kevin waves and forms the north-south dipole mode of the NWPAC (EOF2), corresponding to strong Meiyu. Moreover, it is found that subtropical North Pacific cooling induced by NEN leads to the tropical North Atlantic warming in boreal spring via Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, reinforcing the region-wide consistent mode of the NWPAC (EOF1) via Rossby waves and resulting in strong Meiyu. Conversely, warming in the tropical North Atlantic induced by NEN in boreal early summer leads to anticyclonic circulation over the east of Japan (EOF3) and weak Meiyu. The contributions of these three causal structures to the uncertainty of Meiyu are 31 %, 25.7 %, and 28.2 %, respectively. This study sheds new light on the understanding the significance of NEN for Meiyu, emphasizing the importance of its causal relationship with warming in the tropical North Atlantic.
厄尔尼诺衰减年长江中下游流域梅雨降水量的差异
梅雨(羽流雨)是北方初夏的一种独特天气现象,因其在厄尔尼诺衰减年通过西北太平洋反气旋(NWPAC)增加降水而闻名。人们普遍认为,超强厄尔尼诺(SEN)事件总是与更多的梅雨相对应。本研究强调了厄尔尼诺和梅雨之间关系的不稳定性,特别是在正常厄尔尼诺衰减年,通过统计分析,出现或多或少梅雨的概率几乎相等。利用梁-克莱曼信息流(LIF),我们的研究结果证实,厄尔尼诺现象引起的海洋大陆(MC)变暖导致北大西洋热带地区在北方春季变暖。这通过凯文波抑制了西北太平洋对流,并形成了西北太平洋气旋的南北偶极模式(EOF2),与强梅雨相对应。此外,研究还发现,由 NEN 引起的副热带北太平洋变冷通过北美太平洋模式导致热带北大西洋在北方春季变暖,通过 Rossby 波加强了 NWPAC 的全区域一致模式(EOF1),从而导致强梅雨。相反,北半球初夏的 NEN 引起热带北大西洋变暖,导致日本东部出现反气旋环流(EOF3)和弱梅雨。这三个因果结构对 "梅雨 "不确定性的贡献率分别为 31%、25.7% 和 28.2%。这项研究为理解 NEN 对 Meiyu 的意义提供了新的启示,强调了 NEN 与热带北大西洋变暖之间因果关系的重要性。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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