{"title":"Long-term Holocene warming trend in Southern China revealed by corrected pollen data","authors":"Qiuchi Wan , Cong Chen , Kunshan Bao , Xiao Zhang , Yongjie Tang , Xin Zhong , Zhuo Zheng , Kangyou Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.109015","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Holocene temperature changes and their forcings serve as pivotal references for current and future warming trends. However, significant discrepancies exist between proxy reconstructions and model simulations of Holocene temperature evolution. Pollen evidence, often central to these discrepancies, have been criticized for potentially reflecting human influence rather than pure temperature variations, complicating our understanding of Holocene temperature changes. Our study focuses on southern China, a region with pronounced discrepancies between models and proxies. We introduce and validate a novel methodology to isolate genuine temperature signals from pollen data. This approach employs an arboreal pollen-based temperature index and correct biases inherent in raw pollen data using the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model. Applying this method, we present a new winter/annual temperature record for the past 10,000 years based on two fossil pollen data from the Luoxiao Mountains. Simultaneously, we reconstruct the historical impact of human activities in the region. Our temperature records reveal a sustained warming trend during the Holocene, closely matching model-simulated mean annual temperatures (R = 0.97), and temperature reconstructions based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers from regional terrestrial and marine archives. In contrast, uncorrected pollen data indicate a cooling trend during the late Holocene, coinciding with significant human impact since approximately 3 ka BP. Our analysis and regional comparison with existing temperature records indicate that such contrasting temperature trends stem from a human-induced cooling bias, particularly pronounced in uncorrected pollen data. We infer that the early to middle Holocene warming was due to various factors, while late Holocene warming was predominantly driven by local annual insolation changes. Our findings challenge previously widely identified late-Holocene cooling trends based on uncorrected pollen data, demonstrating that the correction of pollen data can effectively mitigate human-induced cooling biases in temperature reconstructions. This study confirms the accuracy of climate models in simulating a Holocene warming trend, both temporally and spatially, at least in southern China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20926,"journal":{"name":"Quaternary Science Reviews","volume":"344 ","pages":"Article 109015"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quaternary Science Reviews","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379124005171","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Holocene temperature changes and their forcings serve as pivotal references for current and future warming trends. However, significant discrepancies exist between proxy reconstructions and model simulations of Holocene temperature evolution. Pollen evidence, often central to these discrepancies, have been criticized for potentially reflecting human influence rather than pure temperature variations, complicating our understanding of Holocene temperature changes. Our study focuses on southern China, a region with pronounced discrepancies between models and proxies. We introduce and validate a novel methodology to isolate genuine temperature signals from pollen data. This approach employs an arboreal pollen-based temperature index and correct biases inherent in raw pollen data using the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model. Applying this method, we present a new winter/annual temperature record for the past 10,000 years based on two fossil pollen data from the Luoxiao Mountains. Simultaneously, we reconstruct the historical impact of human activities in the region. Our temperature records reveal a sustained warming trend during the Holocene, closely matching model-simulated mean annual temperatures (R = 0.97), and temperature reconstructions based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers from regional terrestrial and marine archives. In contrast, uncorrected pollen data indicate a cooling trend during the late Holocene, coinciding with significant human impact since approximately 3 ka BP. Our analysis and regional comparison with existing temperature records indicate that such contrasting temperature trends stem from a human-induced cooling bias, particularly pronounced in uncorrected pollen data. We infer that the early to middle Holocene warming was due to various factors, while late Holocene warming was predominantly driven by local annual insolation changes. Our findings challenge previously widely identified late-Holocene cooling trends based on uncorrected pollen data, demonstrating that the correction of pollen data can effectively mitigate human-induced cooling biases in temperature reconstructions. This study confirms the accuracy of climate models in simulating a Holocene warming trend, both temporally and spatially, at least in southern China.
期刊介绍:
Quaternary Science Reviews caters for all aspects of Quaternary science, and includes, for example, geology, geomorphology, geography, archaeology, soil science, palaeobotany, palaeontology, palaeoclimatology and the full range of applicable dating methods. The dividing line between what constitutes the review paper and one which contains new original data is not easy to establish, so QSR also publishes papers with new data especially if these perform a review function. All the Quaternary sciences are changing rapidly and subject to re-evaluation as the pace of discovery quickens; thus the diverse but comprehensive role of Quaternary Science Reviews keeps readers abreast of the wider issues relating to new developments in the field.