A study on the fractional-order COVID-19 SEIQR model and parameter analysis using homotopy perturbation method

Abstract

In this article, we present a fractional-order susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantine-recovered (SEIQR) model to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model includes susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), quarantined (Q), and recovered (R) populations and uses a fractional-order differential equation to provide a further accurate representation of the disease's progression. We employ the homotopy perturbation method (HPM) to derive analytical solutions and the Runge-Kutta fourth-order (RK4) method to obtain numerical solutions. The results indicate that the fractional-order model, particularly for a fractional parameter α = 0.40, provides better accuracy and stability compared to the classical integer-order model. This study highlights the importance of fractional-order modeling in understanding the spread of COVID-19 and suggests its potential application in predicting and controlling future epidemics.