Exploratory modeling of social-ecological systems

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Ecosphere Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI:10.1002/ecs2.70037
Maarten B. Eppinga, Martin O. Reader, Maria J. Santos
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Abstract

Navigating social-ecological systems toward sustainable trajectories is an important challenge of the Anthropocene. Models of social-ecological systems can increase our understanding of how social and ecological subsystems interact, their response to environmental changes, and how their dynamics may be altered by management interventions. However, the level of representational detail required for models to describe a particular social-ecological system with high fidelity (i.e., accurately quantifying system dynamics) may hamper both the interpretability of model results and our ability to identify key processes and feedbacks within the system. In contrast, stylized models describe simplified interactions between a small subset of social-ecological system elements. Stylized models are a useful tool to identify potential consequences of specific key processes and feedbacks on system functioning. However, the relatively low level of representational detail in these models limits their ability to deliver concrete management options for a particular social-ecological system. Here, we describe how an exploratory modeling approach can utilize the strengths of stylized models before the construction of social-ecological system models with high fidelity and representational detail. This exploratory modeling approach is an iterative strategy, with the initial steps comprising the development of stylized models informed by empirical observations. We illustrate this with two examples of stylized modeling of isolated and connected social-ecological systems. Through repeated confrontation of alternative models with empirical data, exploratory modeling provides useful stepping stones toward the development of models that describe social-ecological systems in increasingly specific settings with increasing levels of representational detail. When these latter types of models reach a high level of fidelity, they could be used for scenario-based analyses and participatory decision-making processes. At this stage, the conceptual insights previously obtained during the exploratory modeling phase may aid in the interpretation and communication of the outcomes of scenario-based analyses. Hence, exploratory modeling aims to create a synergy between the insights obtained from stylized models and system-specific, high-fidelity models in order to generate a deep understanding of the drivers of social-ecological system dynamics, and how to leverage these drivers to initiate desired changes.

Abstract Image

社会生态系统探索性建模
引导社会生态系统走向可持续发展轨道是人类世面临的一项重要挑战。社会-生态系统模型可以加深我们对社会和生态子系统如何相互作用、它们对环境变化的反应以及它们的动态如何被管理干预所改变的理解。然而,模型要高保真地描述特定的社会-生态系统(即准确量化系统动态),所需的表征细节水平可能会妨碍模型结果的可解释性,以及我们识别系统内关键过程和反馈的能力。相比之下,风格化模型描述的是一小部分社会生态系统要素之间的简化互动。风格化模型是确定特定关键过程和反馈对系统功能的潜在影响的有用工具。然而,这些模型的表征细节水平相对较低,限制了它们为特定社会生态系统提供具体管理方案的能力。在此,我们将介绍一种探索性建模方法如何在构建具有高保真和表征细节的社会-生态系统模型之前,利用风格化模型的优势。这种探索性建模方法是一种迭代策略,初始步骤包括根据经验观察结果开发风格化模型。我们以孤立和相连的社会生态系统的两个风格化模型为例进行说明。通过反复使用经验数据与替代模型进行对抗,探索性建模为开发模型提供了有用的垫脚石,这些模型可以在越来越具体的环境中描述社会生态系统,其表征细节的程度也越来越高。当后一类模型达到较高的逼真度时,就可以用于情景分析和参与式决策过程。在这一阶段,先前在探索性建模阶段获得的概念见解可能有助于解释和交流基于情景的分析结果。因此,探索性建模的目的是在从风格化模型和针对具体系统的高保真模型中获得的见解之间建立一种协同作用,以便深入了解社会-生态系统动态的驱动因素,以及如何利用这些驱动因素来启动所期望的变革。
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来源期刊
Ecosphere
Ecosphere ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
378
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.
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