Mitigation and Optimization of Induced Seismicity Using Physics-Based Forecasting

IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Ryley G. Hill, Matthew Weingarten, Cornelius Langenbruch, Yuri Fialko
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Abstract

Fluid injection can induce seismicity by altering stresses on pre-existing faults. Here, we investigate minimizing induced earthquake potential by optimizing injection operations in a physics-based forecasting framework. We built a 3D finite element model of the poroelastic crust for the Raton Basin, Central US, and used it to estimate time dependent Coulomb stress changes due to ${\sim} $ 25 years of wastewater injection in the region. Our finite element model is complemented by a statistical analysis of the seismogenic index (SI), a proxy for critically stressed faults affected by variations in the pore pressure. Forecasts of seismicity rate from our hybrid physics-based statistical model suggest that induced seismicity in the Raton Basin, from 2001 to 2022, is still driven by wastewater injection despite declining injection rates since 2011. Our model suggests that pore pressure diffusion is the dominant cause of Coulomb stress changes at seismogenic depth, with poroelastic stress changes contributing about 5% to the driving force. Linear programming optimization for the Raton Basin reveals that it is feasible to reduce earthquake potential for a given amount of injected fluid (safety objective) or maximize fluid injection for a prescribed earthquake potential (economic objective). The optimization tends to spread out high-rate injectors and shift them to regions of lower SI. The framework has practical importance as a tool to manage injection rate per unit field area to reduce induced earthquake potential. Our optimization framework is both flexible and adaptable to mitigate induced earthquake potential in other regions and for other types of subsurface fluid injection.

Abstract Image

利用基于物理学的预测缓解和优化诱发地震
流体注入可通过改变原有断层的应力而诱发地震。在此,我们研究了在基于物理学的预测框架下,通过优化注入操作最大限度地降低诱发地震的可能性。我们建立了美国中部拉顿盆地孔弹性地壳的三维有限元模型,并利用该模型估算了该地区因 ∼ ${sim} $ 25 年的废水注入而产生的与时间相关的库仑应力变化。我们的有限元模型还得到了成震指数(SI)统计分析的补充,成震指数是受孔隙压力变化影响的临界应力断层的代用指标。我们基于物理学的混合统计模型对地震率的预测表明,尽管自 2011 年以来注水率有所下降,但从 2001 年到 2022 年,拉顿盆地的诱发地震仍由废水注入驱动。我们的模型表明,孔隙压力扩散是成震深度库仑应力变化的主要原因,孔弹性应力变化约占驱动力的 5%。针对拉顿盆地的线性规划优化表明,在注入一定量流体的情况下降低地震可能性(安全目标)或在规定的地震可能性情况下最大限度地注入流体(经济目标)是可行的。该优化方法倾向于分散高速注入器,将其转移到 SI 值较低的区域。该框架作为管理单位油田面积注入率以降低诱发地震可能性的工具,具有重要的实际意义。我们的优化框架既灵活又适用于其他地区和其他类型的地下流体注入,以降低诱发地震的可能性。
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来源期刊
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geophysics
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
15.40%
发文量
559
期刊介绍: The Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth serves as the premier publication for the breadth of solid Earth geophysics including (in alphabetical order): electromagnetic methods; exploration geophysics; geodesy and gravity; geodynamics, rheology, and plate kinematics; geomagnetism and paleomagnetism; hydrogeophysics; Instruments, techniques, and models; solid Earth interactions with the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and climate; marine geology and geophysics; natural and anthropogenic hazards; near surface geophysics; petrology, geochemistry, and mineralogy; planet Earth physics and chemistry; rock mechanics and deformation; seismology; tectonophysics; and volcanology. JGR: Solid Earth has long distinguished itself as the venue for publication of Research Articles backed solidly by data and as well as presenting theoretical and numerical developments with broad applications. Research Articles published in JGR: Solid Earth have had long-term impacts in their fields. JGR: Solid Earth provides a venue for special issues and special themes based on conferences, workshops, and community initiatives. JGR: Solid Earth also publishes Commentaries on research and emerging trends in the field; these are commissioned by the editors, and suggestion are welcome.
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