Non-Stationary Flash Drought Analysis and Its Teleconnection With Low-Frequency Climatic Oscillations

Abstract

Flash droughts, characterised by their rapid onset and significant impacts on local communities and agriculture, pose challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts due to their unpredictable nature. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the occurrence, characteristics and influencing factors of flash droughts in the Ganga River Basin (GRB) for the period 1981–2020. Flash droughts are identified using the pentad averaged root zone soil moisture (PRZSM). The Mann-Kendall trend test is used to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of flash drought characteristics. Furthermore, a multivariate flash drought index (MFDI) is developed to account for the combined effects of flash drought characteristics. Finally, wavelet coherence analysis evaluates the relationship between climatic oscillations and MFDI at the sub-basin scale. Utilising a revised flash drought identification approach incorporating non-stationary cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), the study identifies flash droughts in the GRB, particularly emphasising higher occurrences in the Chambal and Upper Yamuna Sub-basins. Analysis of flash drought characteristics under stationary and non-stationary conditions reveals increased frequency, severity and decline rates, highlighting the impact of evaporation and latent heat flux. Furthermore, the Upper Ganga Sub-basin demonstrates coherence with the DMI at shorter time scales (1 to 4-year time scales), while the Lower Ganga Sub-basin displays a pronounced association with the NINO3.4 index (5.65-year time scale), indicating the impact of climate oscillations on flash drought dynamics in these regions. These findings provide valuable insights for drought monitoring, prediction and management strategies in a changing climate, emphasising the need for integrated approaches to address the complex interplay between climate variability and flash drought occurrences in the GRB.