ECG-based risk factors for adverse cardiopulmonary events and treatment outcomes in COPD.

Abstract

Background: COPD has high mortality, compounded by comorbid cardiovascular disease. We investigated two ECG markers, Cardiac Infarction Injury Score (CIIS) and P pulmonale, as prognostic tools for adverse cardiopulmonary events in COPD.

Methods: This was a p ost hoc analysis of the IMPACT trial. Outcomes included odds (odds ratio, 95% confidence intervals) of adverse cardiopulmonary events stratified by CIIS threshold (<20 versus ≥20) and P pulmonale (baseline). Events included all-cause death, hospitalisation or death, cardiovascular adverse event of special interest, severe COPD exacerbations, and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations. We also assessed the effects of fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol versus fluticasone furoate/vilanterol or umeclidinium/vilanterol based on CIIS and P pulmonale.

Results: We included 9448 patients. Patients with CIIS ≥20 (versus CIIS <20) had greater odds of all-cause death (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.27-2.37, p<0.001), hospitalisation or death (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.50, p<0.001), cardiovascular adverse event of special interest (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.48, p<0.005), severe COPD exacerbations (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.21-1.64, p<0.001) and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.13-1.40, p<0.001). Patients with P pulmonale (versus without) had greater odds of all-cause death (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.54-3.29, p<0.001), hospitalisation or death (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.28-1.79, p<0.001), severe COPD exacerbations (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.65-2.41, p<0.001) and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08-1.46, p<0.001). A combined model demonstrated that patients with CIIS ≥20 and P pulmonale had increased risk of all-cause death (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.23-9.30, p=0.019), hospitalisation or death (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.14-2.22, p=0.004) and rate of severe COPD exacerbations (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.22-2.91, p=0.004) and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00-1.56, p=0.046). The risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular adverse events of special interest was reduced with fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol versus umeclidinium/vilanterol in patients with CIIS ≥20, but not CIIS <20.

Conclusions: These findings suggest the potential clinical relevance of CIIS and P pulmonale as risk indicators for adverse cardiopulmonary events in COPD.