Richard Aubrey White, Chi Zhang, Beatriz Valcarcel Salamanca, Aslaug Angelsen, Dinastry Pramadita Zakiudin, Aristomo Andries, Saranda Kabashi, Lene Lehmann Moberg
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Since 2022, Norway has employed a vaccine-only COVID-19 strategy. Primary healthcare in Norway uses International Classification of Primary Care version 2 (ICPC-2) codes. This study aims to systematically compare medically certified sick leave and primary healthcare consultations in 2023 with the pre-pandemic 2010-2019 trends, and subsequently estimate the magnitude of these changes.
Methods: For the respective outcomes of (A) working person-years lost to medically certified sick leave (WYLSL) and (B) number of primary healthcare consultations, 556 and 85 ICPC-2 code combinations were extracted from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration's sick leave registry and the Norwegian Syndromic Surveillance System. For each ICPC-2 code combination, a Bayesian linear regression was performed using data between 2010 and 2019 to estimate an expected baseline for 2023, which was then used to calculate the deviation from the pre-pandemic trend. A false discovery rate of 5% was used to account for multiple testing.
Results: All years from 2020 to 2023 had excess WYLSL, corresponding to 14,491 (90% PI: 8,935 to 20,016) in 2020, 12,911 (90% PI: 5,916 to 19,996) in 2021, 21,263 (90% PI: 12,627 to 29,864) in 2022, and 24,466 (90% PI: 14,023 to 34,705) in 2023. This corresponded to an economic loss of approximately 1.5 billion USD in 2023. Excess WYLSL due to A* (General and unspecified) increased from 2020 to 2023, with an estimated excess of 4,136 WYLSL in 2023 (69% higher than expected). More than half of this increase was explained by A04 (Weakness/tiredness general), whose excess WYLSL in 2023 were estimated at 2,640 (80% higher than expected). The excess in A04 (Weakness/tiredness general) corresponded to an economic loss of 161 million USD and accounted for 11% of the total excess WYLSL in 2023. The excess WYLSL in R* (Respiratory) in 2023 was 3,408, which correspond to an economic loss of 207 million USD and accounted for 14% of the total excess in 2023.
Conclusions: Significant excesses in working person-years lost to medically certified sick leave and primary healthcare consultations in 2023. A sizable proportion of the excesses were due to diseases/symptoms associated with acute and post-acute sequelae of COVID-19.
期刊介绍:
rchives of Public Health is a broad scope public health journal, dedicated to publishing all sound science in the field of public health. The journal aims to better the understanding of the health of populations. The journal contributes to public health knowledge, enhances the interaction between research, policy and practice and stimulates public health monitoring and indicator development. The journal considers submissions on health outcomes and their determinants, with clear statements about the public health and policy implications. Archives of Public Health welcomes methodological papers (e.g., on study design and bias), papers on health services research, health economics, community interventions, and epidemiological studies dealing with international comparisons, the determinants of inequality in health, and the environmental, behavioural, social, demographic and occupational correlates of health and diseases.