Aberrations in medically certified sick leave and primary healthcare consultations in Norway in 2023 compared to pre-COVID-19-pandemic trends.

IF 3.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Richard Aubrey White, Chi Zhang, Beatriz Valcarcel Salamanca, Aslaug Angelsen, Dinastry Pramadita Zakiudin, Aristomo Andries, Saranda Kabashi, Lene Lehmann Moberg
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Since 2022, Norway has employed a vaccine-only COVID-19 strategy. Primary healthcare in Norway uses International Classification of Primary Care version 2 (ICPC-2) codes. This study aims to systematically compare medically certified sick leave and primary healthcare consultations in 2023 with the pre-pandemic 2010-2019 trends, and subsequently estimate the magnitude of these changes.

Methods: For the respective outcomes of (A) working person-years lost to medically certified sick leave (WYLSL) and (B) number of primary healthcare consultations, 556 and 85 ICPC-2 code combinations were extracted from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration's sick leave registry and the Norwegian Syndromic Surveillance System. For each ICPC-2 code combination, a Bayesian linear regression was performed using data between 2010 and 2019 to estimate an expected baseline for 2023, which was then used to calculate the deviation from the pre-pandemic trend. A false discovery rate of 5% was used to account for multiple testing.

Results: All years from 2020 to 2023 had excess WYLSL, corresponding to 14,491 (90% PI: 8,935 to 20,016) in 2020, 12,911 (90% PI: 5,916 to 19,996) in 2021, 21,263 (90% PI: 12,627 to 29,864) in 2022, and 24,466 (90% PI: 14,023 to 34,705) in 2023. This corresponded to an economic loss of approximately 1.5 billion USD in 2023. Excess WYLSL due to A* (General and unspecified) increased from 2020 to 2023, with an estimated excess of 4,136 WYLSL in 2023 (69% higher than expected). More than half of this increase was explained by A04 (Weakness/tiredness general), whose excess WYLSL in 2023 were estimated at 2,640 (80% higher than expected). The excess in A04 (Weakness/tiredness general) corresponded to an economic loss of 161 million USD and accounted for 11% of the total excess WYLSL in 2023. The excess WYLSL in R* (Respiratory) in 2023 was 3,408, which correspond to an economic loss of 207 million USD and accounted for 14% of the total excess in 2023.

Conclusions: Significant excesses in working person-years lost to medically certified sick leave and primary healthcare consultations in 2023. A sizable proportion of the excesses were due to diseases/symptoms associated with acute and post-acute sequelae of COVID-19.

与 COVID-19 流行前的趋势相比,2023 年挪威经医疗证明的病假和初级保健咨询的变化情况。
背景:自 2022 年以来,挪威一直采用仅接种 COVID-19 疫苗的策略。挪威的初级医疗保健使用国际初级医疗保健分类第二版(ICPC-2)代码。本研究旨在系统地比较2023年经医疗证明的病假和初级医疗保健咨询与大流行前2010-2019年的趋势,并随后估算这些变化的幅度:方法:从挪威劳动与福利局的病假登记簿和挪威综合症监测系统中分别提取了556个和85个ICPC-2代码组合,用于计算(A)因医疗证明病假而损失的工作年数(WYLSL)和(B)初级保健咨询次数。对于每个ICPC-2代码组合,利用2010年至2019年的数据进行贝叶斯线性回归,以估计2023年的预期基线,然后利用该基线计算与流行前趋势的偏差。为了考虑多重检验,使用了 5%的误发现率:从 2020 年到 2023 年,所有年份的 WYLSL 均超标,2020 年为 14,491 例(90% PI:8,935 至 20,016 例),2021 年为 12,911 例(90% PI:5,916 至 19,996 例),2022 年为 21,263 例(90% PI:12,627 至 29,864 例),2023 年为 24,466 例(90% PI:14,023 至 34,705 例)。这相当于 2023 年约 15 亿美元的经济损失。从 2020 年到 2023 年,A*(一般和未指定)导致的 WYLSL 超标有所增加,预计 2023 年超标 4,136 WYLSL(比预期高 69%)。这一增长的一半以上是由 A04(虚弱/一般疲倦)造成的,其 2023 年的超额 WYLSL 估计为 2,640 个(比预期高出 80%)。A04(虚弱/一般疲劳)的超标相当于 1.61 亿美元的经济损失,占 2023 年 WYLSL 超标总额的 11%。2023年,R*(呼吸系统)的超额工作年限为3 408年,相当于2.07亿美元的经济损失,占2023年超额工作年限总数的14%:2023 年因医疗证明病假和初级保健咨询而损失的工作年数显著超额。相当大比例的超额损失是由于与 COVID-19 急性和急性后遗症相关的疾病/症状造成的。
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来源期刊
Archives of Public Health
Archives of Public Health Medicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
3.00%
发文量
244
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: rchives of Public Health is a broad scope public health journal, dedicated to publishing all sound science in the field of public health. The journal aims to better the understanding of the health of populations. The journal contributes to public health knowledge, enhances the interaction between research, policy and practice and stimulates public health monitoring and indicator development. The journal considers submissions on health outcomes and their determinants, with clear statements about the public health and policy implications. Archives of Public Health welcomes methodological papers (e.g., on study design and bias), papers on health services research, health economics, community interventions, and epidemiological studies dealing with international comparisons, the determinants of inequality in health, and the environmental, behavioural, social, demographic and occupational correlates of health and diseases.
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