[Land Cover Simulation and Carbon Storage Assessment in Daqing City based on FLUS-InVEST Model].

Abstract

Considering Daqing City as the research area, the impact of land cover change on carbon storage in the future was discussed, and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were identified. The future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of a natural succession scenario, ecological protection scenario, urban development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario in 2030, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was combined to estimate carbon storage in 2010, 2020, and 2030. Finally, the hot spot analysis tool was used to identify the cold hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following： ① From 2010 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water, and artificial surface increased, whereas the area of other land cover types decreased, and the total carbon storage decreased by 8.6×10⁵ t. ② The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020, with carbon storage decreasing by 1.16×10⁶ t and 1.20×10⁶ t, respectively. The carbon storage of the comprehensive development scenario decreased by 1.00×10⁶ t compared with that in 2020, and carbon storage of the ecological protection scenario was 5.677 7×10⁸ t, which increased by 2.53×10⁶ t compared with that in 2020. ③ The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss, and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios was wetland. ④ The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were mainly located in the wetland area, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City. The carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land was not significant. According to the research results, to realize the urban transformation of Daqing City, we should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass, increase the intensity of returning moisture, improve the utilization rate of urban land, and increase green infrastructure in the main urban area.