[Effects of Climate Changes and Crop Phenological Responses on Soil Organic Carbon of Cultivated Land in Fujian Province].

Abstract

Research on the mechanism of how climate change affects cultivated soil organic carbon is the basis for the management of cultivated land quality in the context of climate change. Crop phenological responses to climate change have an important effect on cultivated soil organic carbon as well. However, previous research primarily focused on the independent effects of climate change or crop phenological responses on the changes in soil organic carbon, and few studies have analyzed the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon under the combined influence of both factors or quantified their contribution rates to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon. Based on topsoil samples in 2008 and 2021, annual pre-season and mid-season climate data from 2008 to 2021, and the phenological parameters extracted from the enhanced vegetation index （EVI） time series from 2007 to 2022, a soil organic carbon predictive model was constructed using the random forest algorithm. The total change in soil organic carbon from 2008 to 2021, the change in soil organic carbon under climate change alone, and the change in soil organic carbon under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses were simulated. Furthermore, the contributions of climate change and crop phenological responses to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon were distinguished and quantified. Moreover, the dominant influencing factors of soil organic carbon changes and their spatial distributions were identified and analyzed. The results were as follows： ① Under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses, a decrease was observed in soil organic carbon in 74.15% of the cultivated land area in Fujian Province during the years 2008-2021, with an average decrease of 2.20 g·kg^-1. Additionally, there was an increase in soil organic carbon in 25.85% of the cultivated area, with an average increase of 1.48 g·kg^-1. ②The average contribution rates of pre-season climate, crop phenological responses to climate change, mid-season climate, and phenological changes resulting from cultivars shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures to soil organic carbon changes were 34.08%, 28.56%, 22.75%, and 14.61%, respectively. Overall, climate change had a greater impact on the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon in Fujian Province than the crop phenological response to climate change. ③ The regions where climate change and phenological response jointly acted as dominant influencing factors held the largest area, accounting for 47.06% of the total cultivated land area in Fujian Province, and the regions where climate change was the dominant influencing factor alone held the second-largest area, accounting for 28.64% of the total cultivated land area. ④ Higher contribution rates of pre-season climate factors and phenological changes resulting from cultivar shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures tended to be distributed in higher-altitude areas, whereas higher contribution rates of mid-season climate factors and phenological responses to climate change tended to be distributed in lower-altitude areas. These research findings can provide a theoretical basis for decision making regarding the management of cultivated land quality and the safeguarding of food security in the context of climate change.