Risk factor analysis and prediction model construction for contralateral central lymph node metastasis in unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma : Sex, extrathyroidal tumor extension (ETE), tumor diameter and ipsilateral central lymph node metastasis (ICLNM) are risk factor for unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma (UPTC): a case control study.

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY

World Journal of Surgical Oncology Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI:10.1186/s12957-024-03565-5

Jihao Qin, Xiaowen Fang, Chenxi Liang, Siyu Li, Xueyu Zeng, Hancheng Jiang, Zhu Chen, Jie-Hua Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: To investigate contralateral central lymph node metastasis (CCLNM) in patients with unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma (UPTC). To provide a reference for clinical decision-making, a prediction model for the probability of CCLNM was established.

Method: The clinicopathological data of 221 UPTC patients who underwent surgical treatment were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors for CCLNM according to clinicopathological characteristics, construct a prediction model to construct a visual nomogram, and evaluate the model.

Results: According to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, sex (P = 0.01, OR: 3.790, 95% CI: 1.373-10.465), extrathyroidal tumor extension (ETE) (P = 0.040, OR: 6.364, 95% CI: 1.083-37.381), tumor diameter (P = 0.010, OR: 3.674, 95% CI: 1.372-9.839) and ipsilateral central lymph node metastasis (ICLNM) (P < 0.001, OR: 38.552, 95% CI: 2.675-27.342) were found to be independent risk factors for CCLNM and were used to construct a nomogram for internal verification. The ROC curve had an AUC of 0.852 in the training group and an AUC of 0.848 in the verification group, and the calibration curve indicated that the prediction probability of the model was consistent with the actual probability. Finally, the analysis of the decision curve showed that the model has good application value in clinical decision-making.

Conclusion: Sex, ETE, tumor size, and ICLNM emerged as independent risk factors for CCLNM in UPTC patients. A predictive model was therefore developed, harnessing these variables to enable an objective, personalized estimation of CCLNM risk. This tool offers valuable insights to inform surgical planning and optimize treatment strategies for UPTC management.

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单侧甲状腺乳头状癌对侧中央淋巴结转移的危险因素分析和预测模型构建：性别、甲状腺外肿瘤扩展（ETE）、肿瘤直径和同侧中央淋巴结转移（ICLNM）是单侧甲状腺乳头状癌（UPTC）的危险因素：一项病例对照研究。

目的研究单侧甲状腺乳头状癌（UPTC）患者的对侧中央淋巴结转移（CCLNM）。为临床决策提供参考，建立CCLNM发生概率的预测模型：方法：回顾性分析了221例接受手术治疗的单侧甲状腺乳头状癌患者的临床病理数据。方法：回顾性分析221例接受手术治疗的UPTC患者的临床病理资料，进行单变量和多变量Logistic回归分析，根据临床病理特征确定CCLNM的独立危险因素，建立预测模型，构建可视化提名图，并对模型进行评估：根据单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析，性别（P = 0.01，OR：3.790，95% CI：1.373-10.465）、甲状腺外肿瘤扩展（ETE）（P = 0.040，OR：6.364，95% CI：1.083-37.381）、肿瘤直径（P = 0.010，OR：3.674，95% CI：1.372-9.839）和同侧中央淋巴结转移（ICLNM）（P 结论：P = 0.010）：性别、ETE、肿瘤大小和ICLNM是UPTC患者发生CCLNM的独立风险因素。因此，我们开发了一个预测模型，利用这些变量对CCLNM风险进行客观、个性化的评估。该工具可为手术规划提供有价值的见解，并优化UPTC管理的治疗策略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

World Journal of Surgical Oncology ONCOLOGY-SURGERY

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

15.60%

发文量

362

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： World Journal of Surgical Oncology publishes articles related to surgical oncology and its allied subjects, such as epidemiology, cancer research, biomarkers, prevention, pathology, radiology, cancer treatment, clinical trials, multimodality treatment and molecular biology. Emphasis is placed on original research articles. The journal also publishes significant clinical case reports, as well as balanced and timely reviews on selected topics. Oncology is a multidisciplinary super-speciality of which surgical oncology forms an integral component, especially with solid tumors. Surgical oncologists around the world are involved in research extending from detecting the mechanisms underlying the causation of cancer, to its treatment and prevention. The role of a surgical oncologist extends across the whole continuum of care. With continued developments in diagnosis and treatment, the role of a surgical oncologist is ever-changing. Hence, World Journal of Surgical Oncology aims to keep readers abreast with latest developments that will ultimately influence the work of surgical oncologists.