The Effect of Climate Change on Indicator Wetland Insects: Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Two Giant Water Bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) in South Korea.

Abstract

Giant water bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) are top predators in wetland ecosystems, serving as biological indicators of the health of lentic ecosystems and as effective biological control agents for freshwater snails and mosquitoes. This study aimed to predict the current and future distribution of two Korean giant water bugs, Appasus japonicus and Diplonychus esakii, under three climate change scenarios, contributing to the sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in South Korea. Using MaxEnt models, we employed seven climatic and three non-climatic variables to investigate the habitat preferences and distribution patterns of the species. The results revealed that A. japonicus is likely to experience a northward range contraction due to climate change, while D. esakii is predicted to expand its distribution northward without losing its current range. These responses may lead to occupancy turnover between the two species, potentially driving reassembly in aquatic organism community. Elevation was the primary factor influencing the distribution of A. japonicus, whereas annual mean temperature was the most informative variable for D. esakii, both factors derived under the current climate conditions. These findings suggest that both species are highly sensitive to climate change, with potential range shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations. This study provides insights into how climate change could impact two giant water bugs, thereby supporting future efforts to manage and conserve wetland ecosystems in this country.