Decoding Stress Patterns of the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake Doublet

Abstract

Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and rupture patterns. Here, we investigate the role of static stress change in the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.6 earthquake doublet along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), using simulations of 19 historical earthquakes (M ≥ 6.1) and the 2023 earthquake doublet from 1822 to 2023. Focusing on six cascading sub-events during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, we reveal how one sub-event's stress alteration can impact the emergence and rupture of subsequent sub-events. Our analysis unveils that the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake was delayed due to stress shadow effects from historical events, while the 2023 Mw 7.6 earthquake was accelerated as a result of stress increases from historical events and ultimately triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. This study underscores the importance of grasping earthquake preparation, rupture initiation, propagation, and termination in the context of intricate fault systems worldwide. Based on these results, we draw attention to increased seismic hazards in the Elazig-Bingol seismic gap of the EAF and the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault (DSF), necessitating increased monitoring and preparedness efforts.