Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS

IF 5.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES
Ahmad Al-Gurairy, Mohamed S. Al-Jubory, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Salih Muhammad Awadh, Ali H. Al-Zubaidi, Muhammad T. Al-Sadun, Riyadh M. Al-Ghurairy
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Abstract

Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.

The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result from this. The Ilisu Dam was built very close to a highly tectonically active fault system, particularly the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), which is one of the largest tectonically active faults in the world with a length of 500 km. This region has witnessed past and present earthquakes of high magnitude (M > 7), especially in the EAF, so the construction of the Ilisu Dam near the EAF fault system is of great concern, as it was built in a basin with very complex seismic activity and geology.

Using the HEC-RAS simulation application, the study found that the flood resulting from the collapse of the Ilisu Dam would reach the edges of the Mosul Dam Lake in just 13 h. With a flow of more than 100,000 m3/s, more than 10 billion m3 of water will flow into the Mosul Dam Lake within four days of the disaster. This will lead to the collapse of the Mosul Dam and direct the flood wave of the collapse of these dams towards Baghdad through Mosul, Tikrit, and Samarra. This could pose risks to all Iraqi cities located within the Iraqi sedimentary plain (Mesopotamia), from south of the Mosul Dam up to Basra, in a scenario similar to Noah’s Flood.

Abstract Image

通过使用 HEC-RAS 进行建模和模拟,了解构造活动和伊利苏大坝溃坝对伊拉克造成的风险
大坝垮塌引发的洪水会造成巨大的生命和财产损失,尤其是在河口地区和山谷。本研究选择了从土耳其的伊利苏大坝到伊拉克的摩苏尔大坝的区域作为研究区域,并使用 HEC-RAS 应用程序模拟了伊利苏大坝因大地震而垮塌的情况,以了解由此可能造成的风险和损失的严重程度。伊利苏大坝建在一个构造非常活跃的断层系统附近,特别是东安纳托利亚断层(EAF),它是世界上最大的构造活跃断层之一,长达 500 公里。该地区过去和现在都发生过震级很高(M > 7)的地震,尤其是在东安纳托利亚断层,因此在东安纳托利亚断层系统附近修建伊利苏大坝非常令人担忧,因为该大坝建在一个地震活动和地质情况非常复杂的盆地中。研究利用 HEC-RAS 模拟应用程序发现,伊利苏大坝溃坝导致的洪水将在短短 13 小时内到达摩苏尔大坝湖的边缘,流量超过 100,000 立方米/秒,灾难发生后四天内将有超过 100 亿立方米的水流入摩苏尔大坝湖。这将导致摩苏尔大坝坍塌,并将这些大坝坍塌的洪水波经摩苏尔、提克里特和萨迈拉冲向巴格达。这可能会给位于伊拉克沉积平原(美索不达米亚)的所有伊拉克城市带来风险,从摩苏尔大坝以南一直到巴士拉,情况类似于诺亚洪水。
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来源期刊
Applied Water Science
Applied Water Science WATER RESOURCES-
CiteScore
9.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
268
审稿时长
13 weeks
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