Donal Bisanzio, Henry Kyobe Bosa, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Carolyne Nasimiyu, Diana Atwine, Daniel Kyabayinze, Charles Olaro, Robert F Breiman, M Kariuki Njenga, Henry Mwebesa, Jane Ruth Aceng, Richard Reithinger
{"title":"2022 Sudan Ebolavirus Outbreak in Uganda: Modelling Case Burden and Outbreak Duration.","authors":"Donal Bisanzio, Henry Kyobe Bosa, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Carolyne Nasimiyu, Diana Atwine, Daniel Kyabayinze, Charles Olaro, Robert F Breiman, M Kariuki Njenga, Henry Mwebesa, Jane Ruth Aceng, Richard Reithinger","doi":"10.1101/2024.10.11.24314870","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11483010/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.10.11.24314870","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.
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