Change trend and attribution analysis of leaf area index in the East African Plateau from 1982 to 2020.

Abstract

The ecosystems on the East African Plateau are crucial for maintaining the biodiversity, water resource balance, and ecological equilibrium of the African continent. However, the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the driving factors remain unclear. We analyzed leaf area index (LAI) change trends in the East African Plateau based on the GIMMS LAI4g dataset and further conducted attribution analysis combining temperature and precipitation data, as well as 10 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) in TRNEDY v9. The results showed that LAI of the East African Plateau had a modest change trend from 1982 to 1999 (2.5×10^-3 m²·m^-2·a^-1), but significantly increased from 2000 to 2020 (5.2×10^-3 m²·m^-2·a^-1), which was 2.1 times faster than that during 1982-1999. Temperature and precipitation had weak correlations with LAI from 1982 to 1999, but showed significant correlations from 2000 to 2020. The DGVMs demonstrated consistent attribution results, with temperature and precipitation contributing significantly more to the LAI variations from 2000 to 2020 compared to the period from 1982 to 1999. The results highlighted the key role of climate change in driving vegetation greening on the East African Plateau during 2000-2020, which could provide important evidence for ecological conservation and sustainable development strategies in the region.