Prognostic factors for intraductal papillary neoplasm of the bile duct following surgical resection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract

Intraductal papillary neoplasm of the bile duct (IPNB) is a biliary neoplasm characterized by intraductal papillary growth and varying degrees of malignant transformation. This study aimed to identify effective prognostic factors (PFs) for predicting the prognosis of IPNB after surgical resection, addressing the gap in the higher level evidence. We systematically searched databases from their inception to October 10, 2023. Data on 12 predetermined PFs were collected and subjected to a meta-analysis. Forest plots were used to summarize the findings. Fifteen studies with a total of 2311 patients were included. Among the PFs examined, extrahepatic tumor location (HR, 2.97; 95% CI 1.68-5.23), subclassification type 2 (HR, 2.62; 95% CI 1.45-4.76), R1 resection (HR, 2.47; 95% CI 1.73-3.51), elevated CA19-9 level (HR, 3.25; 95% CI 1.91-5.54), tumor multiplicity (HR, 2.65; 95% CI 1.40-5.02), and adjacent organ invasion (HR, 3.17; 95% CI 2.01-5.00) were associated with a poorer prognosis. Additionally, the combined HR values indicated that lymph node metastasis and poor tumor differentiation were linked to a worse prognosis, although both exhibited significant heterogeneity. Our study offers valuable insights for enhancing postoperative prognostication and treatment decision-making for IPNB patients with IPNB. These findings warrant further validation in future prospective studies.