African colorectal cancer burden in 2022 and projections to 2050.

Abstract

Introduction: The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) is on a rapid increase on the African continent, yet grossly under reported. Herein, we provide and updated estimates of CRC burden (incidence and mortality) across Africa as of 2022, and make crucial predictions to 2050.

Methods: We gathered information on CRC incidence and mortality from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, which covers 185 countries. The age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were determined. Cases and deaths up to 2050 were estimated using 2022 incidence and mortality rates.

Results: In 2022, an estimated 70,428 cases and 46,087 mortalities due to CRC were recorded across the African continent. Africa's ASRs for CRC incidence and mortality were 8.2 and 5.6 per 100,000 population, respectively, and were highest in North Africa followed by East Africa. At national levels, CRC ranked in the top four of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in more than half (56%) of African countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females. New cases are predicted to increase by 139.7% (from 70,428 in 2022 to 168,683 in 2050) at the current incidence rate. Similarly, mortalities will increase by 155.2% (from 46,061 in 2022 to 117,568 in 2050).

Conclusion: CRC remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many African countries, and the number of new cases and deaths is predicted to rise significantly by 2050. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable CRC cases should be prioritised.