Causal inference and inter-world laws

Abstract

Jun Otsuka, in his recent work Thinking About Statistics (2023), undertakes a philosophical investigation of fundamental statistical methodologies, with a particular emphasis on causal inference. In his ontological analysis of causal inference, Otsuka posits that causal analysis, within a given causal model, requires the modification of the underlying probabilistic distribution. This modification, he argues, effectively constitutes a transition between possible worlds. Consequently, Otsuka identifies the objective of causal inference as the discovery of inter-world laws that govern the relationships between these distinct probabilistic models (Otsuka 2023, p.168). Granting Otsuka’s ontological commitments regarding causal and probabilistic models, his interpretation of certain causal analyses as inherently inter-worldly is indeed compelling. This perspective merits particular attention given the prevailing tendency to view such analyses to mere rules for estimating causal effects. While this review does not directly challenge Otsuka’s position, it aims to further explore and contribute to this stimulating concept.